On the evening of April 13, the Iranian military launched an unprecedented attack against Israel by firing more than 300 missiles and drones at targets across the country. The strikes were reportedly launched from sites within Iran and other proxy sites in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon. The incident dramatically escalated tensions in the Middle East as it marks the first time Iran has openly led an attack against Israel despite the long-standing proxy conflict between the two states.
The strikes appear to have been ordered by Iranian authorities as retaliation for an April 1 attack on its consulate in Damascus, Syria that killed at least two senior Iranian military commanders and is widely believed to have been carried out by Israel.
No notable damage was reported to infrastructure in Israel with the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) indicating that 99% of the projectiles were intercepted either by Israel’s Iron Dome defence system or by U.S. and U.K. military assets operating in the Middle East. Minor damage was reported to the IDF’s Nevatim airbase located east of the city of Be’er Sheva. The attack did not cause any casualties and only one person from the southeastern town of Arad was wounded.
Attack leads to airspace closures and flight cancellations
The attacks caused significant disruptions to flight operations in the region as Iran, Israel, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon all closed their airspaces overnight between April 13 and 14 due to the threat of projectiles and to guarantee the safety of commercial flights. Lingering disruptions to flight operations in Israel continued through April 14 with around 40 cancellations and 51 delays reported at Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV).
Several international airlines suspended routes to Israel, Lebanon, and Jordan in response to the attacks including UAE-based Etihad Airways, Swiss International Airlines, and German flag carrier Lufthansa. Flight disruptions spread across Iran as authorities maintained a ban on all domestic and foreign flights until the morning of April 15, with operations at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Airport (IKA) only resuming on 06:00 local time on the same day.
The attack is expected to negatively impact shipping times and air cargo transportation costs between Europe and Asia as more airlines have begun opting for longer routes over Central Asia and the Arabian Peninsula in order to avoid flying over Iranian airspace.
MSC container vessel seized by Iran in Strait of Hormuz
On April 13, Iranian forces seized a Portuguese-flagged commercial vessel travelling near the Strait of Hormuz. MSC Aries, a 15,000-TEU container ship with 25 crew on board, was operated by MSC Mediterranean Shipping Co and owned by Zodiac Maritime Ltd. Iranian state-run media initially claimed that the seizure was related to the heightened tensions with Israel following the attack on the consulate in Syria, indicating that the vessel was likely targeted due to its links to Israel through the Zodiac Group. However, on April 15 Iranian officials downplayed this link, stating that the vessel was seized for violating maritime law, creating a justification for further seizures while also claiming it does not seek to further escalate tensions with Israel.
The Strait of Hormuz forms a natural chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, narrowing to around 39 km at a point between the coasts of Oman and Iran. Unlike the missile and drone attacks on Israeli territory, there is precedent for Iran to disrupt shipping through the Strait during periods of heightened tension. In 2018-19, Iranian officials threatened to close the Strait to apply pressure to the U.S. as it ended sanction exemptions on Iranian oil exports. Iranian forces have also carried out alleged retaliatory seizures of oil tankers in the region in recent years, as recently as January 2024.
Since November 2023, disruptions to shipping in the region focused on the Red Sea as Houthi forces began targeting Israeli-linked vessels for its invasion of Gaza. As a result, several shipping companies opted to suspend or limit operations through the Red Sea while insurance rates have increased for those that continue.
Iran could expand this disruption to the Strait of Hormuz through continued vessel seizures or in a worse-case scenario entirely closing the Strait to shipping, as they threatened on April 9. Such a move would have a major impact on global oil supply. Around 21 million barrels per day are estimated to be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for around 20% of global supply, and unlike the Red Sea there are no alternative maritime routes to compensate for the closure.
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