In our Russia-Ukraine Risk Scenarios Report for 8 October 2026:
Over the past several months, the Russia-Ukraine war has continued to intensify with no end in sight amid an impasse in ceasefire negotiations, and attacks on civilian targets have increased significantly. In Ukraine, stocks of defensive interceptors have diminished, enabling new Russian air attacks on major civilian targets. Throughout July, August, and September, deadly aerial attacks on major Ukrainian cities escalated, including dozens of attacks in the capital city of Kyiv. Civilian casualty rates in Ukraine have now reached their highest levels since 2022.
In addition to these humanitarian impacts, both countries have increased attacks on logistics, infrastructure, and manufacturing targets. Military campaigns in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov have affected critical export lanes for commodity supplies. Additionally, many production sites have been affected in both countries, but especially in Russia, where attacks on oil and gas refineries have contributed to major supply shortages.
No further negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have taken place since last February, when the conflict in the Middle East derailed plans for talks. In early September, U.S. envoys visited Moscow and Kyiv to discuss peace talks. Subsequently, Ukrainian and Russian officials have indicated they are planning for talks at an unspecified date as early as October. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated he is unwilling to meet directly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Since no breakthroughs have occurred to make a lasting deal more likely, diplomats are expected to focus on de-escalating attacks on civilians and energy infrastructure and resuming grain exports through the Black Sea as a temporary solution.
Meanwhile, Russia has increased its use of hybrid warfare methods against European countries, with incidents including cyberattacks, drone incursions on foreign airspace, and other sabotage operations that could help undermine support for Ukraine but fall below the threshold of open warfare. German officials have formally blamed Russia for a planned drone explosion near Ukrainian cargo planes in early August at Leipzig/Halle Airport (IATA: LEJ), while Romania’s Foreign Minister highlighted at least 100 Russian aerial incursions into Romanian airspace amid the intensifying conflict in the Black Sea. Additionally, some Russian media channels and anonymous social media accounts have begun promoting ideas of a “Narva People’s Republic” in Estonia’s northeastern border region, including through circulating separatist imagery and claims that Russian-speakers need protection from Estonians, in an apparent effort to destabilize the Estonian government and diminish support for NATO. Policymakers from Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, and several other countries have called on NATO and the EU to increase measures to counter these attacks.
Military attacks disrupt key exports from the Black Sea
In July 2026, Ukrainian drones and missiles targeted Russian vessels and port infrastructure in the Sea of Azov. As a result, Russian authorities indefinitely suspended maritime transit through the Kerch Strait and the Don-Azov Shipping Channel on July 11. The move cut off Russian seaborne exports from major agricultural hubs like Rostov and Krasnodar, as Black Sea grain export capacity dropped from roughly 3.3 million metric tons per month to just 250,000 tons at Russia’s sole remaining operational terminal in Tuapse.
In response, Russian military forces escalated a systematic campaign against Ukraine’s logistics infrastructure, disrupting over 97% of the country’s combined grain export capacity. This campaign has included targeted strikes on commercial vessels and port facilities in Greater Odesa, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi, and Mykolaiv, prompting major ocean carriers to suspend Black Sea calls amid surging war risk premiums.
To bypass the Black Sea maritime blockade, exporters are diverting commodities like iron ore, wheat, corn, and sunflower oil to alternative river and land routes. However, these backup arteries face an additional bottleneck in the severe European drought that has depleted the Danube River’s water levels. Reduced river depth has forced barges to operate at a fraction of their normal capacity and created severe vessel congestion at Romania’s Sulina Canal. Simultaneously, Russian strikes increasingly target lower-capacity Danube River ports, western railway hubs, and key border crossings with Romania and Moldova, compounding delays across European overland corridors.
Russian and Ukrainian attacks target industrial production facilities
In addition to logistics infrastructure, industrial production sites have increasingly become targets. In Ukraine, civilian industrial facilities have been targeted throughout the conflict, but the depletion of interceptor supplies has resulted in Russian attacks hitting these targets more consistently.
The most impactful production disruptions over the past several months occurred mainly in Russia, where Ukraine has stepped up attacks on industrial facilities across a wide variety of industries to increase economic pressure. Recent attacks have become more aggressive against Russian energy, oil, and fuel suppliers, in part due to increased Ukrainian technological capabilities. Due to the amount of physical damage now affecting Russian fuel refineries, Russia’s gasoline output has fallen by 20% compared to 2025 production levels, while diesel output has fallen by 30%. Combined with global fuel market instability due to the Iran war, these attacks have led to domestic fuel shortages in 92% of Russian regions and price increases, with gasoline prices rising 18% and diesel prices rising 19% since the beginning of 2026.
U.S. expected to sign legislation enabling tariffs on importers of Russian oil and gas products
On September 18, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a new law that would give him the ability to enact tariffs of up to 100% on the top five importers of Russian oil and gas products, and tariffs of up to 500% on all imports from Russia, although President Trump has not indicated whether he plans to move forward with these tariffs. The measure also mandatorily enacted direct sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin and 20 companies designated as supplying Russia’s defense industry.
The law enacting tariffs on importers of Russian oil and gas products would likely target China and India, who are by far the largest foreign buyers. Turkey and the European Union are also among the top buyers. The Russian government has criticized the bill, indicating that if passed, the measure would complicate any upcoming negotiations. With negotiations likely to be contentious either way, the situation could play out in several different ways.
Scenario 1: Military strikes continue at current intensity
Despite recent progress in re-establishing Russia-Ukraine talks, no major changes have materialized in Russian and Ukrainian negotiating positions to hasten a peace deal. Military strikes are likely to continue until at least one side is willing to offer more concessions. Upcoming negotiations may be able to reach agreements on decreasing the number of strikes or limiting acceptable targets. However, both sides have maintained fairly consistent demands throughout the war, despite growing pressure on civilians on both sides. As a result, continued military strikes at their current intensity remain the most likely outcome over the next several months.
With strikes expected to continue, disruptions to energy and agricultural exports from Russia and Ukraine are likely to worsen existing supply constraints in these sectors and contribute to the rising costs for these essential commodities. In the energy sector, diminished Russian refinery capacity will affect refined oil and gas product prices even in countries that do not directly import these products due to tight supplies on the global market, especially in conjunction with the ongoing disruptions to supplies from the Middle East. Refined products such as diesel are at especially high risk of further price increases, which could have major downstream impacts on pricing for truck logistics.
Agricultural markets are likely to see similar impacts due to the halt of shipments through the Black Sea, since Russia and Ukraine have historically supplied around 28% of the global wheat market, 15% of the global corn market, 66% of the world’s sunflower oil, and 16% of the world’s fertilizers. Major importers of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural products include Middle Eastern countries as well as China. Although direct shortages are not expected due to numerous alternative sources for these grains, limited product availability and increased prices could have downstream price impacts on food and oilseed processing in these regions. Outside of these areas, limited supplies are likely to have an upwards impact on global pricing. Additionally, grain exports were one of Ukraine’s last stable sources of trade activity, constituting around 60% of Ukraine’s export revenues. A long-term halt in exports could worsen economic distress throughout the country.
Lastly, Russia is also likely to keep using covert hybrid methods such as cyberattacks, misinformation campaigns or drone incursions to undermine support for Ukraine and weaken European unity. While major incidents that could be perceived as a direct attack are unlikely, localized disruptions at key logistics hubs such as airports or attempts to damage the continent’s critical communications infrastructure, such as undersea cables, remain possible.
Scenario 2: Intensified military strikes or trade restrictions force negotiations
The two largest variables that could change the negotiating stance of Ukraine or Russia are the intensification of military strikes affecting civilians or the enactment of new trade restrictions harming Russia’s economy. Russia and Ukraine have both intensified aerial attacks designed to weaken public support for the conflict. Russia has attacked major cities and civilian targets in Ukraine more directly, while Ukraine has increased attacks on Russian oil refineries, industrial sites, and logistics infrastructure. Despite some diplomatic attempts to shield manufacturing and logistics sites from further damage, attacks could be stepped up on either side to force concessions in future negotiations.
While an increase in aerial attacks could eventually move peace negotiations along, a further uptick in missile strikes may result in extensive infrastructural damages. These damages could affect production facilities and logistics lanes and take months to years of investment to repair, indicating that full pre-war export levels of key oil products, grain supplies, industrial goods, and other major exports are unlikely to be restored immediately.
Additionally, new U.S. trade restrictions could weaken demand for Russian energy products, and in turn hurt the Russian economy and increase public pressure to end the war. While oil and gas markets remain highly fragile, U.S. sanctions could succeed in reducing demand due to fear of hurting trade relations with the U.S. This could further worsen global fuel supplies, with buyers competing for a limited supply of products refined outside of Russia.
Officials on both sides appear to believe that measures aimed at swaying public opinion are the most effective way to bring the other combatant to the negotiating table. Although humanitarian and economic impacts continue to build, no country has shown public willingness to change key negotiating positions despite the costs, making a deal unlikely in the short-term. However, this could change if the economic and civilian costs intensify further.
Scenario 3: Renewed efforts at negotiations bring about peace talks
While official negotiations have been paused since February, the recent U.S. talks with Russian and Ukrainian officials have revived hopes for talks. These meetings could reflect increased war weariness in both countries that could lead to lasting concessions at the negotiating table. Additionally, the reopening of official diplomatic channels could be the beginning of longer talks that lead to a more permanent ceasefire agreement.
Although new talks could revive hopes for a productive dialogue, there have not yet been any indications of concessions important enough to fully halt the conflict. President Putin’s unwillingness to meet directly with President Zelenskyy highlights the lack of political will necessary for a permanent ceasefire. As a result, this scenario remains unlikely over the next few months. However, the upcoming talks could be the first step in reconciling these differences over the long-term.
If a permanent ceasefire were to occur, severe physical infrastructure damage would delay a full restoration of economic activity. Russian exports could likely resume more quickly due to the smaller scale of damage and the potential removal of some Western trade restrictions, providing further support for global energy markets. Repairs in Ukraine are likely to be much more costly and time consuming due to widespread damage to key civilian transportation, power, and network infrastructure in addition to manufacturing facilities. Additionally, manufacturing and logistics companies in Ukraine could initially face a shortage of workers as citizens displaced by the fighting and soldiers drafted into the army during the conflict might struggle to re-enter the country’s civilian workforce.
Everstream clients are receiving more detailed insights and recommendations about this risk.
Don’t miss key supply chain risk updates! Subscribe now to get supply chain news, weather updates, forecasts, and other insights.