As the July 24 deadline approaches for replacing the current 10% baseline tariff, the U.S. has begun releasing the results of several trade investigations that could form the basis for new tariff measures.
On June 3, an investigation into alleged forced labor practices resulted in the U.S. proposing new additional tariffs. Under the proposed measure, countries with existing strong commitments to reducing forced labor, including Canada, Ecuador, the E.U., Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Malaysia, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom, would face a 10% tariff to be charged on top of existing duties.
A higher additional tariff of 12.5% would be charged for 45 other countries with more limited policies against forced labor, including China, India, Nigeria, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Australia, and New Zealand.
These proposed tariffs would not apply to goods already subject to separate national security-related tariffs, such as steel and aluminum products. Canadian and Mexican goods covered under the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (U.S.M.C.A.) would also remain exempt.
In addition, the U.S. has proposed 76 pages of product-specific exemptions covering a variety of items, including crude oil and petroleum products, rare earth elements and other specialty metals, beef, coffee, certain fruits and vegetables, pharmaceuticals, organic chemicals, and aircraft parts.
The final implementation date has not been announced. A public hearing on the forced labor tariffs is scheduled for July 7, making it unlikely that the measures will take full effect before that date. Although many affected countries have verbally pushed back on the investigation’s allegations, no country has announced official retaliatory measures at the time of writing.
In addition to the forced labor tariff investigation, the U.S. has also proposed a new 25% tariff on imports from Brazil following investigations into deforestation and digital trade issues that began in July 2025. A public hearing on this proposal is scheduled for July 6. The same product exemptions proposed under the forced labor tariff investigation would also apply to the Brazil-specific tariffs.
U.S. reduces tariffs on some steel and aluminum industrial goods
Additionally, the U.S. will reduce tariffs on certain steel and aluminum products from 25% to 15%, effective as of June 8. The lower rate will apply to a range of industrial machinery and goods, including agricultural machinery, residential heating products, air conditioning and ventilation equipment, steel racks, and aluminum lithographic plates.
Companies may qualify to further reduce tariffs on these products to 10% if at least 85% of the steel or aluminum by weight in the product is melted and poured or smelted and cast in the U.S.
These tariffs are scheduled to remain in effect through at least December 31, 2027, and are intended to increase U.S. domestic steel and aluminum production.
U.S. formally announces plans to renegotiate U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement
On June 10, President Trump formally announced that the U.S. will not re-sign the current U.S.M.C.A., setting the stage for what could be months or years of renegotiations for a new agreement. The current policy will remain in force during the review process for up to ten years unless one of the member countries chooses to withdraw entirely.
President Trump did not indicate whether he may ultimately seek to exit the agreement, though the U.S. would be required to provide six months’ notice before doing so, making significant near-term disruptions without warning for manufacturers unlikely. Any effort to reopen and amend the text of the agreement could also require a formal vote in Congress.
As part of the upcoming review process, the Trump administration is expected to propose a new requirement that at least 50% of an automobile’s content, measured by the U.S. dollar value of its components, be produced in the U.S. to qualify for the agreement’s tariff exemptions.
Current rules instead require that 75% of a vehicle’s content originate anywhere within North America, without imposing a minimum requirement for any individual country.
U.S. negotiators may also seek to raise the overall North American content requirement above the current 75%, though no specific threshold has been announced. This requirement is likely intended to target companies in Mexico, where many vehicles and their components are manufactured before being shipped duty-free to the U.S.
U.S.-China trade summit concludes with no major agreement
Despite President Trump’s visit to Beijing on May 14–15 for talks with China’s President Xi Jinping, the two sides only made limited progress toward a comprehensive trade agreement.
The U.S. and China agreed to reduce tariffs on agricultural goods by an unspecified amount, and China committed to increasing purchases of U.S. agricultural products and Boeing aircraft.
Both sides also agreed to establish a trade oversight board that will supervise future tariff reductions, with priority sectors including U.S. agricultural, energy, and medical device exports, as well as Chinese consumer goods.
However, no formal announcements were made regarding final tariff rates or a long-discussed rare earth minerals agreement. President Xi plans to visit the U.S. in September, suggesting that further progress could be announced at this time.
Although China remains subject to a Section 301 investigation concerning allegations of excess industrial capacity and was recently targeted in the forced labor investigation, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested that China is unlikely to retaliate so long as U.S. tariffs are not increased beyond their previous levels. Current U.S. tariffs on most Chinese goods stand at 10% on top of preexisting duties.
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