Export controls on the supply of a range of raw materials from countries in Africa and Asia are increasingly posing challenges to supply chain continuity across the world.
The government of Guinea’s announcement on May 26 that export limits on bauxite would be imposed from June was the latest in a string of measures affecting the supply of some vital raw materials.
In some cases, the restrictions put in place will only serve to tighten the market and increase prices, not to remove the supply in its entirety. But the measures taken altogether represent a significant change in how governments in commodity-rich countries look to leverage these assets.
While the supply of these materials is critical for many supply chains, access to many materials is constrained by geographically concentrated ownership of reserves. For example, for cobalt and nickel, the top three producing countries of each commodity account for over 60% of global production. Lithium and rare-earth materials are even more highly concentrated, with 90% of the global supply concentrated in the top three producing countries. The significant concentrations of these resources underscore the severity and scope of the impact that export controls could have in the months to come.
Growing number of countries in Asia and Africa introduce export restrictions on raw materials
Guinea
Guinea, the world’s largest producer of bauxite, accounts for roughly 33% of global bauxite production. On March 12, 2026, the government met with several mining companies to establish a policy for limiting the export of the ore to ensure price stability before announcing on May 26 that the export controls would take effect on an unspecified date in June. The exact export limit has not been announced, but several sources have speculated that the limit could be placed at 150 million tons, an 18% decrease from its 2025 export levels.
The high volume of shipments in 2025 drove prices down by nearly 50%, resulting in major losses for government and local company revenues.
If the cap was placed at or around 150 million tons, the bauxite market is expected to move from structural surplus to significant supply tightness. Impacts would be most severely felt in China, which imports three-quarters of its supply of bauxite from Guinea.
Australia is the best-positioned alternative source for bauxite but has seen significantly lower volumes in 2025 as exports of bauxite from Guinea accounted for 73% of global seaborne exports through the first seven months of 2025. Australia is forecast to increase bauxite production by 2% from 2026-2027, which could dampen the force of Guinea’s export controls but is unlikely to absorb the entire impact.
A drop in exports from Guinea will increase costs for aluminum producers in China and, in turn, could raise the prices for aluminum components manufactured there. China produces roughly 60% of global supply of aluminum.
A wide range of sectors could potentially be affected by higher prices for aluminum components, including the automotive, aerospace, packaging, and construction sectors.
While some alternatives exist as Australia and Brazil produce significant amounts of bauxite, the export control is likely to increase prices for aluminum products globally. A more limited export ban imposed by Guinea on bauxite shipments to Emirates Global Aluminum in 2024 contributed to a 20% price increase for alumina.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has curtailed exports of cobalt since February 2025, initially enacting a full ban on exports for eight months before transitioning to a quota-based system in December of the same year.
The country supplies roughly 74% of global cobalt output; however, the 2026 annual export quota is set at 96,600 metric tons, which is less than half of 2024 production volumes, highlighting the severity of the restrictions and their impact on global supply.
Cobalt is an essential cathode material for lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) batteries widely used in electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and energy storage systems.
Individual quotas for exporters in 2026–2027 are allocated based on those companies’ historical export performance from 2022–2024, meaning that established mining and production sites will likely retain export advantages.
The controls had an immediate effect; in 2025, China imported 90% less cobalt from the DRC than it did in 2024. The new regulatory system includes mandatory royalty prepayment within 48 hours, joint sampling requirements, sealed export lots, and compliance audits.
With no alternative able to sufficiently fill the supply gap left after the export control went into effect in the DRC, the cobalt market has become increasingly constrained. Cobalt prices jumped 71% when the DRC announced the ban in February 2025. In total, prices for cobalt have increased over 161% from January 2025 to May 2026.
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe has steadily increased its restrictions on lithium in recent years. A ban on raw ore was put in place in December 2022, with a concentrate ban set to take effect from January 2027. The government initially announced an immediate, comprehensive ban on all raw minerals and lithium concentrates on February 25, 2026, but eased the ban slightly in April.
However, on May 22, Zimbabwe again tightened exports by classifying 14 minerals as critical, 1 mineral as special critical, and 9 as strategic minerals. The new restrictions banned the export of all raw forms of these minerals unless authorized under a transitional beneficiation plan, with clear timelines for local processing.
The minerals also require government ownership participation through Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) and controls on distribution. The affected minerals include lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, copper, rare earth elements, chrome, platinum group metals, manganese, antimony, uranium, ruthenium, tungsten, and niobium. Metallurgical coal has been designated a special critical mineral, while limestone, potash, phosphorus, iron ore, pyrites, oil and gas, coal, gold, and diamonds are classified as strategic minerals.
Zimbabwe is Africa’s leading lithium producer and, without export restrictions, could reach approximately 9-10% of global primary lithium supply. The country is a key supplier of lithium to China, accounting for approximately 15% of China’s total lithium import volumes in 2025. Chemical producers and battery cell manufacturers for electric vehicles are the most exposed to potential supply disruptions.
Zimbabwe joins several other African countries in restricting lithium: Namibia in June 2023, Tanzania in May 2024, Ghana in July 2023, and Malawi in October 2025, have all imposed or announced restrictions on unprocessed lithium and critical minerals. The price of lithium has increased by 171% from January 2025 to May 2026.
Indonesia
On May 20, Indonesia’s government moved to centralize control over multiple key commodities, including palm oil, nickel, coal, and ferroalloys. Under the plan, the national sovereign wealth fund Danantara will oversee a new trading company for exports.
The new measures are expected to come into effect by August with a gradual implementation over three months. These latest measures allow the Indonesian government to set the price and amount for exports of key commodities in a completely new trading structure.
The first commodities that will be regulated are palm oil, ferroalloys, and coal, but the entity can then add new commodities in three-month intervals. Restrictions on palm oil and nickel would have an outsized impact as Indonesia accounts for roughly 57% of global palm oil production and 60% of global mined nickel supply.
India stands to be heavily impacted by any palm oil disruptions, as it received roughly 52% of its total palm oil imports from Indonesia in 2024.
Some sources estimate that over 90% of Indonesia’s nickel exports go to China, and the country is home to a large number of Chinese-owned entities for nickel mining and processing. Any restrictions on nickel exports from Indonesia would disrupt China’s sourcing of the material.
The restrictions could also impact the trade relationship between the U.S. and Indonesia after both countries signed a reciprocal trade deal on February 20, which provides the U.S. with access to Indonesian commodities in exchange for a lower tariff rate.
China
China’s export controls have been some of the most consequential, as it controls approximately 60% of global rare earth mining and 91% of global rare earth separation and refining capacity. China also maintains approximately 90% of the global capacity for permanent magnet manufacturing.
The number of controls has steadily increased, with gallium and germanium controls beginning in August 2023, export controls on high-purity graphite products taking effect in December 2023, and antimony being added in September 2024.
China controls approximately 77% of global natural graphite production and a higher share of synthetic graphite used in lithium-ion battery anodes.
On April 4, 2025, new controls mandated national security export licenses for seven medium and heavy rare earth elements: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium. China extended controls in October 2025 to battery materials and superhard materials. At the time of writing, the licensing framework remains in place, and a review scheduled to take place in November 2026 could see a further tightening of the country’s export controls.
Industrial sectors most at risk of business disruptions due to raw materials export controls
Electric vehicle manufacturing stands to be severely impacted by these export controls. Cobalt, lithium, nickel, and rare earth magnets supply from major producers are all simultaneously restricted. Each is a critical component of battery manufacturing, and limits on the supply of these key materials could force automotive manufacturers to adjust production volumes. Outside of electric vehicles, the export limits on cobalt and lithium stand to significantly affect the consumer electronics sector. With the DRC’s quota system set to limit supplies of cobalt through 2027 and lithium restrictions from Zimbabwe, laptops, smartphones, and other wearable devices that rely on lithium cobalt oxide batteries are at risk of material shortages and production disruptions. Likewise, China’s restrictions on antimony led to a price increase for the commodity that consumer electronics manufactures use in flame proofing in printed circuit boards and semiconductor production.
The defense and aerospace sectors have also faced significant headwinds from China’s rare earth export curbs. Rare earth materials, in many cases, have no known alternative for the heat-resistant and high-strength components that rare earths are used for in these sectors. Munitions, aircraft, and high-tech manufacturers stand to be disrupted if shortages of rare earth materials persist. In February, U.S. suppliers to aerospace and semiconductor firms were forced to limit production of components that contained these elements and, in some cases, turn away customers. Both the E.U. and the U.S. have begun developing alternative supplies of rare earth materials through mining projects and trade deals with other countries, but substantial supply from these initiative is still likely years away.
The renewable sector also stands to face disruptions from China’s rare earth export limits as wind turbines rely on permanent magnets for direct drive. China’s dominance of high-performance magnet supplies means that wind turbine manufacturers will have to compete with other sectors for supplies of an increasingly shrinking pool of resources.
Lastly, the food production sectors could face the risk of decreased commodity supply and higher prices as Indonesia’s palm oil restrictions and Guinea’s bauxite limits take effect. It remains to be seen how severely the Indonesian government will curtail exports of palm oil, but the commodity’s importance as an ingredient in processed foods could lead to far-reaching implications for the industry. Limits on bauxite exports in Guinea will directly impact China’s aluminum output, including aluminum packaging. The reduced supply of this key product could lead to higher costs for food makers reliant on this type of packaging.
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