On February 16, the Congolese Ministry of Transport and Channels of Communication confirmed that members of the Rwanda-backed rebel group M23 had taken control of Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu Province and the second-largest city in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Rebel forces reportedly entered the city just two days earlier but encountered little resistance from government troops during their advance. The takeover came on the heels of the group’s capture of Goma, the capital of North Kivu Province and the region’s largest city, which involved heavy fighting and left thousands of people dead in late January.
The M23 rebels are just one of over a hundred armed groups competing for control in the country’s mineral-rich east, however, the group’s most recent advances are an unprecedented expansion of its territory since it reemerged in the region in late 2021. A further escalation of the conflict would not only worsen a long-running humanitarian crisis but could also disrupt the supply of critical minerals that are mined in the region, including tin, tantalum, and tungsten.
Military conflict puts regional mineral supply chains at risk
The DRC is home to vast amounts of mineral resources, including deposits of metals such as copper, cobalt, gold, tin, tantalum, tungsten, and lithium. Most of the copper and cobalt deposits are in the south and have not been impacted by the recent surge in violence yet. However, large amounts of gold, tin, tantalum, and tungsten can be found in the county’s war-torn eastern region, where M23 rebels made notable military advances over the past year.
In January, the M23 rebels took control of Goma, a lakeside town located on the border with Rwanda and a key transport and business hub for the regional mineral trade. About a week later, the rebels also captured Nyabibwe, another resource-rich mining town located halfway between Goma and Bukavu. Metals such as gold and coltan are mined in the area. Bukavu, another important transit hub located on the southern end of Lake Kivu right at the border with Rwanda, fell to the rebel group in mid-February. Since the rebels took over Bukavu, members of the group have also been accused of stealing around 10 tons of so-called 3T minerals – tin, tungsten, and tantalum – from a mining facility in South Kiva operated by CJX Minerals Sarl. The minerals were reportedly labeled and ready to be exported.
Even before the latest offensive, the rebels had already gained a foothold in the region’s mineral trade. M23 rebels seized control of Rubaya, a mining town with large coltan deposits, last April. Coltan is refined into tantalum, a metal mainly used in the electronics industries to make products such as capacitors and high-power resistors. The DRC is the world’s second biggest producer of coltan, most of which is mined around Rubaya. A UN representative estimated that coltan from Rubaya feeds into around 15% of the world’s tantalum production and brings in hundreds of thousands of dollars in revenue for the rebel group each month. In December, a UN report accused the rebels of illegally exporting at least 150 tons of coltan to Rwanda, where it was allegedly mixed with Rwandan supply. If true, this would reportedly constitute the biggest mineral supply chain contamination in the Great Lakes region recorded so far. Rwanda has also been accused of stealing and selling other metals such as gold from areas in the DRC, allegations the Rwandan government rejects.
In the weeks before it took control of Rubaya, the M23 rebels reportedly set-up road blockades along major transport routes connecting the mining town with Goma, severely disrupting the movement of mineral shipments. UN representatives also allege that the group charged fees to let shipments pass though road blockades it set up along trading routes and diverted some of them to Rwanda long before it managed to seize entire towns.
Escalating conflict could disrupt sourcing of minerals from the DRC and beyon
Output reductions at local mines and disruptions to the transport of minerals in and out of the eastern DRC are the likeliest immediate trade-related issues; however, the rebels gaining control of parts of the country permanently could impact the ability of companies to source raw materials from the DRC as well as neighboring countries in the long-term.
The U.S. and the EU have both passed legislation meant to promote the sustainable sourcing of critical minerals and ensure that companies sourcing conflict minerals such as tin, tantalum, tungsten or gold do not inadvertently fund armed groups and fuel conflicts in the countries of origin. Even before the recent surge in fighting, the scattered nature of artisanal and small-scale mining made it difficult for local authorities to keep track of business operations and mineral shipments in parts of the DRC. Following a rebel offensive focused on North Kivu in the spring of 2024, the Responsible Minerals Initiative, an umbrella organization that helps hundreds of companies to ensure responsible sourcing of minerals from conflict-affected and high-risk areas, had already warned its members about sourcing metals from the region. With the business and trade environment becoming even less clear as rebels gain control of key mining hubs, sourcing minerals from the DRC or neighboring countries such as Rwanda or Uganda will become increasingly complicated as the origins of these minerals become harder to trace.
Rebel advances could escalate into wider regional conflict
The United Nations (UN), the African Union (AU) and the European Union (EU) have all warned that the rebel offensive could easily escalate into a wider regional war if neighboring countries like Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi are drawn into the fighting. The humanitarian impact as well as the business and trade disruptions of a wider regional war would likely be significant.
In her most recent statement, Judith Tuluka Suminwa, the Prime Minister of the DRC, reiterated the government’s refusal to negotiate with the M23 rebels and insisted it will only negotiate with Rwanda to end the fighting. Although international pressure on Rwanda has been growing, it remains unclear if it is willing to engage in ceasefire talks. As the conflict shows no sign of ending, the supply of several critical minerals will remain at risk of disruptions. While the cobalt and copper reserves in the country’s south have been largely unaffected by the conflict so far, prices for the former mineral could see a significant increase in the coming weeks as well after the DRC’s government announced a four-month export ban that went into effect on February 22.
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