After months of growing political tensions between the United States and Venezuela, the Trump administration launched a surprise military operation into Venezuela, capturing the country’s President Nicolas Maduro on January 3, 2026. The Venezuelan president and his wife Cilia Flores have since been taken to the U.S., where they have pleaded not guilty to drugs and weapons-related charges brought by the U.S. government on January 5.
Delcy Rodríguez, who had been the vice president of Venezuela since 2018 under President Maduro, was sworn in as the country’s acting president on the same day President Maduro appeared in a court in New York City. Rodríguez initially condemned Maduro’s capture but has since struck a more conciliatory tone, offering to work with the U.S. government. Nevertheless, political tensions between both countries remain high after the U.S. threatened to conduct another military strike if authorities in Venezuela do not cooperate with the administration’s plans for the country and particularly, its oil sector.
Following the military raid, President Trump floated the idea of the U.S. running Venezuela until a democratic political transition can take place and announced that it could take control of the country’s large oil reserves to reinvigorate the industry. President Trump also suggested that similar actions could follow in other countries and territories, such as Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, and Greenland, threatening to cause political and economic upheaval beyond Venezuela. It now appears that the U.S. will instead seek to influence the country’s future through cooperation and pressure on interim president Rodríguez, rather than through explicit control of the nation.
U.S. military operations disrupt air and ocean transport in parts of Latin America
As part of the military raid on January 3, U.S. forces reportedly also targeted areas near Caracas, the country’s capital, including La Guaira, where its second largest container port is located. The port was closed after reportedly suffering significant damage, and it remains unclear when normal shipping operations will be able to resume. However, industry representatives have pointed out that even though the closure is expected to cause some delivery delays, impacts to container shipping will likely be limited as some capacity could be rerouted through the Port of Cabello, the country’s largest container port, which is located further away from Caracas.
In mid-December, the U.S. government had announced a naval blockade targeting all sanctioned oil tankers leaving or entering Venezuela to repatriate alleged stolen oil, land, and other assets. So far, U.S. authorities have pursued and, in some cases, seized, several oil tankers trying to transport oil from Venezuela, with one of the most recent seizures involving the vessel Marinera (formerly Bella 1) on January 7, which had tried to claim Russian protection. In early January, reports estimated that at least 16 oil tankers sanctioned by the U.S. had evaded the U.S. naval blockade by turning off their transmission signals and hiding their locations. The naval blockade reportedly did not affect oil shipments by U.S.-based energy company Chevron Corporation.
Flight operations in and out of Venezuela have also faced significant disruptions due to the raid on January 3. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a so-called Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), banning all planes registered in the U.S. from flying in Venezuela’s airspace from 06:00 (UTC) on January 3, forcing U.S. airlines to cancel hundreds of flights across the region. Outside of Venezuela, flight cancellations were reported at airports including the Luis Munoz Marin International Airport (IATA: SJU) in Puerto Rico, the Queen Beatrix International Airport in Aruba (IATA: AUA), and the El Dorado International Airport (IATA: BOG) in Colombia. American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines, which together account for most of the flight capacity in the U.S., were reportedly all forced to adjust flight schedules in the region following the airspace closure. The airspace closure was lifted shortly after midnight on January 4, and U.S. airlines have reportedly resumed commercial flights to and from the region. Despite these short-term disruptions to commercial flight traffic, industry representatives currently do not expect significant long-term impacts to air freight operations in the region.
U.S. military raid in Venezuela likely to disrupt the country’s oil industry
In the months leading up to capture of President Nicolas Maduro, the U.S. had increasingly put pressure on Venezuela’s oil industry, the nation’s primary economic sector. In addition to the seizure of oil tankers associated with Venezuela, the Trump administration has stated that the U.S. would take control of the nation’s oil industry for the time being, including selling Venezuela’s oil, though details on this plan remain unclear at the time of writing.
The nation accounts for an estimated 303 billion barrels worth of crude oil, or a fifth of the world’s global reserve. The initial round of strikes within Venezuela during the capture of President Maduro reportedly left the country’s oil infrastructure intact. While Venezuela’s oil resources are significant, the country’s associated oil infrastructure is grossly insufficient to allow for any major changes in global oil markets in the short-term. Over the past two decades, Venezuela has seen a consistent decline in oil output, primarily due to government mismanagement and corruption, with a fall from around 3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 1998 to roughly 1 million bpd now, an estimated 0.8% of global crude oil production. The Trump administration has openly stated its desire for U.S. oil companies to enter the market to repair Venezuela’s aging infrastructure, but that plan would involve long-term and costly investments, which could take years to pay off. Nevertheless, President Trump is expected to meet with representatives of Chevron Corporation, ConocoPhillips Company, and Exxon Mobil Corporation, three of the biggest U.S. oil companies, this week to discuss possible investments in Venezuela.
The most immediate impacts to global oil supplies are from disruptions to loading operations in Venezuela. While the Venezuelan state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), has had it port operations suspended for several days, U.S.-based Chevron Corporation has been able to resume its loading operations in the country. This operational suspension impacts oil bound for Asia, primarily China, which is PDVSA’s main customer. In November 2025, just weeks before the U.S. military strike, Venezuelan oil exports rose to around 921,000 bpd, with oil bound for China accounting for roughly 80% of the total (~746,000 bpd) that month.
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