Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris continue to solidify their campaign strategies around economic and immigration concerns in the final weeks leading up the 2024 Presidential election. The past several weeks have seen several major developments in the ongoing Presidential race including a second assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump, which saw him targeted by a gunman at his golf club in Florida. The suspect was taken into custody before reaching Trump or injuring others.
Additionally, the race’s highest-polling third-party candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., dropped out of the race on August 23 following several months of poor polling and endorsed Trump. The impact of his withdrawal has been inconclusive, but Kennedy’s subsequent endorsement of Trump could allow the former President to secure more support among moderate Republicans.
The past month also saw Trump and Harris engage in their first presidential debate on September 13. Voters broadly viewed the debate as a success for Harris, but the Vice President is unlikely to enjoy any lasting polling gains due to the length of time until the election. Trump has also announced he does not plan to take part in any additional debates, although the candidates will take part in individual televised town halls on October 8 and 10. The start of early and mail-in voting in states such as North Carolina and Pennsylvania will only serve to increase the pressure on both candidates as they continue jockeying for votes across key swing states.
Over the past month, Harris has maintained a small polling lead of around 2% in the key swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. If Harris maintains these leads and holds onto all expected Democratic-leaning states she will be able to secure electoral college by one vote. Former President Trump currently enjoys slim leads in Arizona and Georgia while both Nevada and North Carolina remain a toss-up between both candidates.
The race remains too close to call as either candidate could make up enough ground to win any of the aforementioned states in the coming weeks. Additionally, there remains a chance that current polls have continued to underestimate Trump’s true level of support among voters similar to the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Trump expands tariff suggestions
Trump continues to make the implementation of proposed tariffs a centerpiece of his campaign strategy. In addition to his previous promise to introduce a global baseline tariff of 10-20% on all imported goods, the former president has also proposed import tariffs of as high as 100% on goods from countries that seek to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar. The former President did not specify what extent of de-dollarizing would qualify a country for the tariffs, nor what countries could be affected. Trump’s proposed de-dollarization tariff has been interpreted as his response to a plan by the BRICS group of emerging economies to develop a new gold-backed trading currency as an alternative to the U.S. dollar.
In addition to country-wide tariffs, Trump has also announced his intention to impose 100% tariffs or more on cars imported from Mexico as a means of protecting the American automotive sector. However, the feasibility of such a tariff is uncertain as the policy would likely be in violation of United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which states that Mexican cars that meet sourcing requirements from North America are allowed to be imported duty-free into the U.S. In addition to automotive products, Trump has also indicated that he is willing to impose tariffs on domestic companies that close local plants to outsource production to Mexico.
Trump’s tariff-heavy policies could make the U.S. economy vulnerable to counter-tariffs that would drive up the prices of domestic goods. Additionally, a victory for the former President in November could lead to increased port congestion and shipping rates towards the end of 2024 and early 2025, as companies are likely to increase imports of critical products that are vulnerable to Trump’s proposed tariffs before any policies are enacted.
Other than tariffs, Trump also announced a new plan on September 24 to attract manufacturers to the U.S. by providing tax breaks and access to federal land. The plan also promises to speed up environmental reviews for manufacturing projects and will allow businesses to write off taxes on heavy machinery investments in the first year following their purchase. The former President has also indicated that he would aim to lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for companies that manufacture products in the U.S.
Harris focuses on economic issues amidst concerns over union support
Harris has not released a detailed tariff policy of her own but has continued to warn of increased consumer prices under Trump. Many analysts view Harris as likely to continue President Joe Biden’s policies of smaller-scale, targeted tariffs, particularly against China’s manufacturing and semiconductor sector. Harris’s campaign also released a new document on September 25 detailing more information about her domestic manufacturing proposals. Under the plan, her administration would offer $100 billion in tax credits to companies building new manufacturing facilities in the U.S. in strategic industries. A full list of industries has not been released but will likely include support for the renewables, iron and steel, aerospace, biotechnology, automotive, and semiconductor manufacturing sectors.
Harris’ campaign has also been focused on gaining the support of union and manufacturing workers in key swing states. If elected, Harris has promised to support pro-union policies, including by passing the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act, which would strengthen the right of employees to join unions and limit corporate union-busting measures. She also announced her opposition to Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of the U.S. Steel Company at a recent campaign stop, joining both Trump and Biden in promising to block the deal.
The Vice President’s continued focus on blue-collar issues is seen as an attempt to appeal to rank-and-file union members that broke for Trump during the 2016 and 2020 elections. However, it remains to be seen if she will be able to secure additional support among union members after the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union, one of the largest multi-sector unions in the U.S., declined to endorse either candidate on September 18, marking the first time the union has chosen not to endorse a Democratic Presidential candidate in nearly 30 years.
Harris’ relationship with voters could also be affected by the upcoming East and Gulf coast port strike organized by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) on October 1. A prolonged strike by the union at major ports could drive up living costs for the average voter right before the election and raise questions about Harris’ ability to manage rising costs. On the other hand, any attempt by the Biden administration to force the ILA into mandatory conciliation could damage Harris’ reputation among union voters and cost her support in key battleground states including Pennsylvania and Georgia.
Everstream clients are receiving more detailed insights and recommendations about this risk.
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