On September 12, Russia and Belarus commenced previously planned joint military exercises in Belarus. In anticipation of the war games, Poland announced it would close its border with Belarus beginning at 00:00 local time on September 11. However, upon the drills’ conclusion on September 16, Poland opted to maintain the border closure indefinitely, cutting off rail routes including the China-Europe Railway Express, through which about 90% of Chinese rail freight destined for the European Union moves. High-value goods dependent on the route including electronics, machinery, and vehicles are likely to face transit delays, along with perishable goods like pharmaceuticals and food items.
Border closure impacts regional rail and truck traffic
From September 9 through the morning of September 10, 19 suspected Russian drones – many originating from Belarus – entered Polish airspace. This prompted responses from Polish, Dutch, Italian, and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) aircraft, and briefly closed four Polish airports including Warsaw Chopin Airport. Following a statement from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk that the event marked “the closest we have been to an open conflict since World War Two,” an urgent United Nations Security Council meeting was held on September 12.
While the initial closure of Polish border crossings with Belarus were prompted by joint Belarusian-Russian military exercises in Belarus, the Polish government has indicated that closures will remain in place indefinitely due to safety concerns from the Russian drone incursions. All truck crossings, including Kukuryki-Kozłowiczy, have been cut off, and all rail freight passages have been impacted due to the closure including Kuźnica Białostocka-Grodno, Siemianówka-Svislocz, Terespol-Brest.
Polish and Belarusian truck drivers that crossed borders ahead of the closure remain unable to return to their home countries. The Belarus Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported nearly 1,500 Polish drivers stuck in Belarus, while about 10,000 Belarusian drivers are similarly trapped in Poland. While movement of Chinese-origin road freight destined for Europe remains possible due to alternatives via Lithuanian and Latvian border crossings, these alternate routes are facing heavy congestion due to the unexpected influx of detours. About 120 trucks were reported to have been queuing at the Grigorovshina, Lithuania crossing and about 420 trucks were queuing at two checkpoints in Latvia on September 15.
Rail freight originating in China, Kazakhstan, and other Commonwealth of Independent States countries is expected to be disproportionately impacted by the closure given Poland’s position as a choke point for the China-Europe Railway Express, impacting the fastest overland route for Chinese shipments to Europe. About 90% of the network’s approximately 20,000 trains pass through Poland, with Malczyce Station providing over 90% of the railway’s transshipment services.
High-value and perishable goods face highest risk of impact
In 2024, high-value products including electronics, machinery, and vehicles made up over 60% of Chinese rail exports. Electrical machinery, machinery, and vehicles marked the top three Harmonized System (HS) chapter code exports by twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) between January and August 2025. By volume, the top vehicle-related exports utilizing the China-Europe railway include vehicle and tractor parts and accessories including body components, motorcycles, gear boxes and related components, and suspension systems. The electronics HS sub-categories most impacted include flat panel display modules parts, transmission and reception apparatus for radiobroadcasting or television, cameras, and radar apparatus, home appliances, parts of electric motors and generators, and plugs and sockets.
Although the China-Europe Railway Express operates along corridors throughout China, goods coming from China’s inland western provinces without immediate seaport access are most likely to feel heightened disruptions from railway closures. New energy-related products like electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar products have established manufacturing bases in China’s western and central provinces, elevating the chance of logistics disruptions for these products.
Beyond finished products and components, the China-Europe railway is key to the transport of several key raw materials impactful to multiple sectors. Salts of oxometallic or peroxometallic acids, which may include compounds like aluminates, chromates, manganates, molybdates, and tungstates, were the tenth most-exported HS subcategory from China to Europe through August 2025. These carry various uses as petrochemical catalysts, metal coatings, fertilizers, contrast agents, pigments, and additives for ceramics and glass. Over 534 TEUs of artificial graphite were also exported on the route from January through August. Artificial graphite may be utilized in foundry facings and high temperature lubricants including those for steel making, but it is also critical in electrode and electrical contact manufacturing. Further raw materials for which Kazakhstan provides significant exports to the European Union including phosphorus, titanium, and silicon may face transit delays.
Finally, over 855 and 487 TEUs of organic chemicals and pharmaceutical products, respectively, were exported via the China-Europe railway through August of this year. While disruptions to organic chemical deliveries could prove costly to the pharmaceutical sector due to their use as drug intermediates, finished pharmaceutical products, along with any food products already in transit, remain at heightened risk of spoiling due to their perishable nature.
Everstream clients are receiving more detailed insights and recommendations about this risk.
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