Beginning in late November, three consecutive cyclones descended on Southeast Asia, combining with the typical monsoon season to trigger profound flooding across the region. Typhoon Koto (locally known as Verbena) first formed on November 23 and proceeded to make multiple landfalls in the Philippines and Vietnam.
Cyclone Senyar then made an initial landfall in Medan, Indonesia on November 26 before impacting Malaysia and southern Thailand.
Finally, Tropical Cyclone Ditwah made landfall over eastern Sri Lanka on November 28 before moving along the southeast coast of India.
While much of Southeast Asia has experienced heavy rainfall and inclement weather due to the storms, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Thailand have suffered particularly severe damages.
In Sri Lanka, Ditwa brought heavy rains resulting in landslides and the worst floods to hit the country in the past decade. Extensive damages were recorded across the country, with authorities declaring 22 districts as national disaster areas, a death toll of at least 479, and 1.5 million people impacted.
In Indonesia, the death toll stemming from flooding and landslides as of December 3 stood at 770. About 460 individuals remain missing in the three worst-affected provinces of Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra, and civil society groups have continued to urge the government to declare the Sumatra floods a national disaster.
In Thailand, at least 145 individuals died due to flooding in the southern portion of the country, with 110 of the total deaths recorded in Songkhla province. While the human toll in Thailand was relatively lower than that in Sri Lanka and Indonesia, the country has suffered substantial financial impacts from industrial damages.
Severe infrastructure, agricultural damages present across Sri Lanka and Indonesia
While each of Sri Lanka’s 25 districts experienced heavy rainfall and winds leading to disruptions across the entire country, the hardest-hit districts include Gampaha, Colombo, Puttalam, Mannar, Trincomalee, and Batticaloa. The Kandy, Badulla, and Matale districts have suffered the highest death tolls following damage related to landslides.
Authorities estimate that damages to Sri Lanka’s highway network amount to around USD 615 million (EUR 527 million). Logistics are further hampered by damages to the country’s railway network, with only 30% of lines operational as of the morning of December 4. Of 38 fuel stations that were originally reported to have been damaged from flooding, only 14 have successfully come back online. Additionally, over 150 water supply systems were damaged from adverse weather and power outages, impacting thousands of consumers.
Damages to dams and canals are expected to further hinder recovery efforts for the nation’s agricultural sector, which employees about one third of the population. At least 137,000 acres of land are estimated to have been destroyed. Sri Lanka is a key exporter of tea, cinnamon, and coconut, with the country serving as the third largest tea exporter in the world. While the full extent of damages to team plantations and factories is still unclear, local media indicated that as of December 2, central Welimada, a prominent tea production area, remained inaccessible by road with tea plantations covered by debris.
Cyclone Senyar, though not the strongest storm to have formed this season, brought substantial damages to Indonesia given the rarity of tropical cyclone formation near the Equator. It is only the second storm to have developed in the area in recorded history. The Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra provinces recorded some of the highest damages due to flooding. In North Sumatra, fuel supplies were reported to remain disrupted as recently as December 2 due to inundated roadways and landslides that have cut off transportation routes. Power and internet outages also impacted affected areas from November 28, with parts of Medan, North Sumatra suffering outages of over 12 hours.
About 40,000 hectares of rice fields in the worst-affected Indonesian provinces have been impacted by flood waters. Further disruptions are expected across further agricultural commodities given Sumatra’s position as a major producer of coffee and palm oil. Indonesia contributes about 5% of the world’s coffee exports, and up to 75% of the country’s coffee production is concentrated in Sumatra.
Disruptions to key export hubs may further impact agricultural exports. The Port of Belawan in Sumatra faced significant constraints to landside operations from November 27 due to inaccessible roadways leading to the port, with operations only gradually resuming from December 1.
Flood damages in southern Thailand threaten rubber and high-tech exports
Though flooding in Thailand was more limited to the southern portion of the country, damages (estimated to exceed USD 15 billion (EUR 12.9 billion)) are disproportionately high due to extreme impacts to both residential and industrial units across Songkhla province including Hat Yai, Thailand’s fifth-largest city.
Over 700 factories in the districts of Hat Yai, Chana, Na Thawi, Thepha, Sabayoi, Bang Klam, Rattaphum, Sadao, Ranot, Kuan Niang, Na Mom, and Klong Hoi Kong suffered damages. Impacted factories represent multiple industries, including food processing, rubber wood processing, and rubber, plastic, and metal production and extraction.
Authorities estimate that rubber production in Thailand, the world’s largest producer, could be cut by about 90,000 metric tons due to floods. In addition to rubber factory downtime known to be impacting producers such as Sri Trang Agro-Industry and Sri Trang Gloves, at least half of Thailand’s rubber cultivation area is in the southern portion of the country and at risk of flood damages.
Transportation disruptions from flooding have also impacted flows of high-tech and automotive components across Songkhla. At least 700 kilometers (435 miles) of roadways were damaged in Hat Yai and its surroundings. Routes in Hat Yai leading to the Sadao and Padang Besar border checkpoints between Thailand and Malaysia remained unpassable on December 2. The two checkpoints handle 96% of bilaterial border trade between the countries.
Additionally, the issuance of some certificates of origin required for export processing has been halted due to flooding. The State Railway of Thailand has also suspended some train services on the southern line servicing Hat Yai due to extensive flood-related track damage. The sections between Ban Ton Don and Hat Yai and between Hat Yai and Sungai Kolok junction are expected to be repaired between December 7-14.
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