After a rapid 18-hour intensification over October 25-26 from a Tropical Storm to a Category 4 hurricane, Hurricane Melissa made landfall as a powerful Category 5 storm on the southwest coast of Jamaica near New Hope at 12:00 local time on October 28.
At landfall, maximum sustained winds were 185 mph (295 km/h), making Melissa the strongest hurricane to ever impact Jamaica by a wide margin, as well as the most intense tropical system recorded this year globally. Subsequently, Melissa moved northward making a second landfall near Chivirico, Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane at around 04:00 local time October 29.
Despite a discontinuation of a tropical storm warning by the Jamaican government, the country is expected to suffer continued flash flooding and landslides across all provinces in the coming days. Mandatory evacuation orders were issued the evening of October 26 in Jamaica for about 28,000 people across Port Royal (Kingston), Portland Cottage and Rocky Point (Clarendon), Old Harbour Bay (St. Catherine), Taylor Land, Bull Bay, New Haven, and Riverton City (St. Andrew).
The eastern portion of Cuba is also expected to be hit with multiple landslides and severe flooding and storm surges. As a result, over 500,000 people have been evacuated in the southern and eastern portions of the country and a hurricane warning remains in effect for the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantánamo, Holguin and Las Tunas.
Inundated roadways and flood damages to critical infrastructure and commercial properties have been reported along with operational shutdowns impacting air and sea freight hubs on both islands. The scope of damages remains to be determined, complicated in part by vast power and network outages.
Hurricane Melissa disrupts operations across Jamaica and Cuba
Authorities suspended operations at the Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston, Jamaica following the final incoming flight on October 25 and at Sangster International Airport in St. James, Jamaica at noon on October 26. While government officials in Jamaica have indicated that they are working to reopen all airports as early as October 30, damages have been sustained at Sangster International Airport, potentially delaying its reopening while investigations into operational safety are undertaken.
The Port of Kingston, a key transshipment hub given its strategic location in the Caribbean and proximity to the Panama Canal, was also closed along with all other Jamaican seaports from October 25 in anticipation of Hurricane Melissa’s passage.
Jamaican officials have indicated that it is too early to understand the full extent of damages inflicted on the island given ongoing impacts of the storm. However, the Jamaican prime minister has declared the island as a disaster area and Jamaica’s climate change minister has warned of “catastrophic” effects of flooding, landslides, and severely damaged public infrastructure including power and communications networks.
Following the system’s landfall, about 77% of Jamaica was without power and internet connectivity fell to roughly 42% of typical levels. Multiple roadways and bridges have been deemed impassable, including multiple routes in St. Thomas, St. Catherine, Trelawny, Hanover, St. Mary, Manchester, and St. Ann, as well as the westbound lanes along the Mandela Highway towards Spanish Town. Jamaica Post, the country’s postal operator, has suspended all international and domestic operations.
In Cuba, over 500,000 people have been evacuated in the southern and eastern portions of the country, with transport restricted in eastern Cuba. Power has been shut down in nearly all portions of eastern Cuba, and widespread flooding has already been reported in lowland parts of the country between Santiago to Guantánamo the morning of October 29. Furthermore, several airports including the Santiago de Cuba International Airport and Frank Paìs International Airport have been closed from October 28 until October 30 at the earliest.
Alumina and agricultural commodities expected to face disruptions
While most of Jamaica is expected to be impacted to some degree given the country’s relatively small size, Melissa’s passage through the western portion of the island is likely to bring the heaviest damages to this area, which is home to the largest concentration of agricultural cultivation. Already, initial reports indicate that St. Elizabeth Parish in southwest Jamaica has been submerged by floodwaters.
Sugar (from sugar cane), bananas, coffee, cocoa, allspice, and ginger, the biggest agricultural exports from this part of Jamaica, are at highest risk of storm-related damages. However, damage assessments to croplands could take weeks to complete given the access challenges.
In addition to heavy impacts in western Jamaica, high terrain areas in the middle of the country are expected to face major flooding and landslides. Jamaica is the seventh largest aluminum oxide (alumina) exporter in the world and the eighth largest global producer of bauxite used to produce aluminum. Most of the roughly 5.8 million tons of bauxite mined annually in Jamaica is exported to smelters based in North America. Much of the country’s alumina and bauxite production sites, including those of Century Aluminum (Hayes), Alumina Partners of Jamaica (Nain), are in the affected western and central portions of Jamaica, increasing the likelihood of production disruptions in the wake of the storm. The Esquivel and Kaiser Ports – smaller ports established for bauxite and alumina exports – are also at increased risk of storm surges given their location on the southern coast. Damage assessments in these areas are likely to take weeks or months following clean-up efforts.
Everstream clients are receiving more detailed insights and recommendations about this risk.
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