Vice President Kamala Harris has quickly consolidated support among Democratic voters in the weeks following President Biden’s decision to not pursue re-election and was nominated for President by the Democratic Party on August 6. This month, Harris has held large rallies in major swing states, including Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan. She also attended the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where she formally accepted her party’s nomination for president.
Former President Trump has also remained busy on the campaign trail, with rallies held in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, Montana, and Georgia, in addition to several high-profile media appearances. His campaign has attempted to pivot its messaging towards Harris following Biden’s resignation, but the latest polling suggests that Vice-President Harris has successfully made gains both nationally and in key battleground states over the last month. However, the overall race remains very close as Harris continues to poll lower than Trump or higher by only a slim margin in several key states.
Based on an average of polls taken since July 21, Harris has pulled ahead by slim margins in three key states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, sometimes termed the “blue wall.” Winning all three states is typically considered the most straightforward path to victory for Democrats; if they win only these three swing states and maintain wins in their typical strongholds, they will likely have enough votes to win the presidency. Under current data, Harris polls ahead of Trump by an average of 1% in Michigan, 1.6% in Pennsylvania, and 1.8% in Wisconsin. This is a significant improvement on Biden’s poll numbers, who polled behind Trump by an average of 3.2% in Michigan and by less than 1% in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2024.
Harris has gained significantly on Biden’s results in other swing states. She now polls an average of 1% ahead of Trump in North Carolina. However, Trump continues to poll ahead of Harris in other swing states, including Arizona, Nevada, Georgia. The margin of Harris’s victories in the blue wall states is also slim, and there is still plenty of time for Trump to reverse those gains before November 5. Moreover, the number of polls conducted so far is limited due to Harris’s late campaign announcement. More widespread data collection over the next 1-2 months will help ascertain a more complete picture of the electoral race.
Candidates outline plans to reduce domestic living costs
Vice-President Harris’ campaign continues to remain relatively light on policy specifics as Democrats have chosen to focus on introducing Harris’ background and social priorities to voters. However, Harris has indicated that one of her domestic priorities if elected will be to reduce prices for consumers by tackling domestic causes of inflation.
Proposals released by the Democratic campaign indicate that Harris could be planning to reduce food prices by enacting a federal ban on price-gouging of food and groceries and directing the Federal Trade Commission to penalize companies that break price-gouging limits. Furthermore, additional regulation could also be introduced to scrutinize merger and acquisition activity between large food manufacturers.
Harris has also proposed several measures to reduce healthcare and pharmaceutical costs by introducing new caps on prescription drug prices and expanding the ability of the Medicare program to negotiate lower drug prices with manufacturers. However, the precise enforcement mechanisms for Harris’ plans have not been specified. Other new initiatives that have been proposed by the Vice President include expanding tax credits for families, providing a $25,000 subsidy to first-time home buyers, and incentivizing the construction of new housing units.
Harris’ priorities for international trade continue to remain less clear but the Vice President has criticized Trump’s proposed global tariffs on the grounds that increasing trade restrictions would exacerbate domestic inflation. The former president has recently proposed the idea of further increasing tariffs on imports during a campaign stop in North Carolina on August 15, indicating that a general tariff on imported goods into the U.S. could range from between 10 to as high as 20%.
Trump has also made reducing domestic prices a key part of his re-election campaign, and the former President has proposed cutting household expenses by ending taxes on social security benefits and tips. Additionally, the former President has also promised to extend tax cuts for individuals and businesses covered by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act which was passed during his first term in office. Trump has also reiterated plans to counter inflation by significantly reducing regulation for businesses and bolstering U.S. oil and gas production to bring down domestic energy prices.
Harris selects Tim Walz as Vice-Presidential nominee
Trump’s plans to increase fossil fuel production are in contrast Harris’ established support for environmental regulations and the renewable energy industry. Harris’s selection of Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her Vice-Presidential candidate also reflects these views as Walz has been a staunch supporter of environmental protection policies, including banning the non-essential use of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in Minnesota and attempting to transition the state to renewable energy by 2040. As a member of the House of Representatives, Walz was generally opposed major trade deals including the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but he supported select deals with potential benefits to the agricultural industry, including a proposed free trade agreement with South Korea.
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