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Global port congestion on the rise

Global port congestion has steadily increased over the previous two months, with growing backlogs and bottlenecks being reported globally. Data collected by Everstream Analytics shows a consistent rise in the number of ships at anchor waiting to berth at a port across the globe, with the global average surpassing 20 cargo and container vessels at anchor at any given time.  

The backlog of waiting ships is largely driven by increased numbers of vessels at anchor in Asia, where lingering impacts from the Red Sea drone and missile attacks and subsequent schedule alterations have increased congestion at regional ports, particularly at Mediterranean and Asian ports. The ports in Istanbul, Singapore, Chittagong, and Shanghai are currently the most impacted.  

Global vessel waiting times do not show the same consistent increase and increases have been sporadic since the beginning of the year; however, high waiting times have been seen at African ports recently, possibly due to the redirection of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa amid the ongoing Red Sea crisis.  

Relief is unlikely anytime soon. The global container fleet is expected to peak at 30 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) this month, with roughly 6-7% of that capacity already locked in due to port congestion. According to the Drewry World Container Index, spot prices for 40ft containers have reached a high of $5,318 (€4,965), from $1,536 (€1,434) a year ago. This is the highest reading since at least September 2022 when prices were slowly decreasing following the pandemic-era record-highs. The attack on vessels in the Red Sea will continue to limit major carriers’ ability to move vessels between Asia and Europe, likely resulting in a further rise in container freight rates, which are approaching prices last seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, and growing congestion at regional seaports. Barring an end to the Red Sea crisis or the slowing of overall global demand, congestion and delays are likely to persist through the next two months.   

Vessel bunching leads to growing global port congestion 

Since April 1, Everstream Analytics data has shown a clear and consistent increase in global vessels at anchor count. This rise is mostly attributed to increased numbers at ports in Asia. Singapore has seen the highest number of vessels at anchor, with 663 daily vessels as of mid-June. As a result of the persistent congestion, the port currently has 450,000 TEUs of capacity waiting to get in and out of the port. Significant numbers of vessels at anchor can also be found at Chittagong in Bangladesh (176 vessels), and Guangzhou (93 vessels), Chiwan (93 vessels), Shekou (93 vessels), and Shanghai (90 vessels) in China. The main driver of these numbers has been the Red Sea Crisis, which has led to cascading delays and increased costs as shippers re-route vessels around the longer route near the Cape of Good Hope in South Arica. 

The Port of Singapore is being seen as the epicenter of the backlogs globally. According to the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, the monthly average tonnage of container vessel arrivals reached 72.4 million gross tonnage (GT) in the first four months of 2024, representing a roughly one million GT increase per month, compared to the same period in 2023. Port authorities are collaborating with freight carriers and the Ministry of Transportation to ensure the situation does not worsen but have not provided a timeline for when the situation will improve.  

In addition to the crisis in the Red Sea, the build-up of transshipment cargo has further expounded port congestion issues at some ports. Notably, the Port of Singapore is the world’s busiest transshipment hub, with any delay in the movement of cargo in and out of the port leading to cascading congestion at other destinations, with a build-up of two million TEUs being reported. The Ports of Barcelona and Valencia in the western Mediterranean have also been severely impacted by transshipment cargo congestion. Large vessels from East Asia have begun offloading shipments there for further distribution to the eastern Mediterranean amid limitations along the shipping route in the Red Sea. Valencia alone reported that a total of 2.22 million TEUs have passed through the port since the beginning of 2024, an increase of 12.4% from the same period last year, most of which are directly related to the changing of routes and redistribution around the Mediterranean.   

Global waiting times have not seen the same consistent rise as the vessels at anchor count. However, ports along the African coast have experienced increased waiting times, which can be attributed to vessels avoiding the Red Sea route and traveling along the Cape of Good Hope instead, as global carriers opt for this longer, but safer route. African ports often lack the same level of infrastructure to take on higher than normal shipment capacities as the ports situated along the Europe-to-Asia route through the Red Sea, adding to the delays.  According to the World Bank Group and S&P Market Intelligence’s Container Port Performance Index 2023, African ports were among the worst performing ports globally. Increased shipping traffic will likely only worsen port performance and wait times in the region in the coming months.  

Looming disruptions in North America promise more global port congestion 

In addition to ongoing crises such as the attacks in the Red Sea, multiple other disruptions are on the horizon that could further compound congestion-related issues at ports globally. The International Longshoremen’s Association’s (ILA) contract with workers at ports from Maine to Texas in the United States is set to expire on September 30, impacting roughly 45,000 dockworkers across the country. The ILA suspended negotiations with port operators on June 10, increasing the risk of the contract lapsing and dockworkers going on strike. While a strike currently isn’t anticipated before October 1, a strike along the United States’ East and Gulf Coast, with some of the region’s busiest seaports, could result in significant processing delays, and extend port congestion-related issues well into the busy holiday shipping season.  

With hurricane season beginning in early June, severe storms are also likely to impact port operations along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts in the coming months, should they make landfall. Meteorologists are currently predicting an above-average storm season in the Atlantic Ocean, which would increase the risk of operational disruptions at seaports in the United States.   

Lastly, an impending rail strike in Canada by the workers of Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) could also have devastating impacts on Canadian port operations, limiting carriers’ abilities to move goods inland. The union is currently voting on a strike authorization, with voting ending on June 29.  

 

Everstream clients are receiving more detailed insights and recommendations about this risk. 

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