Since the beginning of summer, Russia and Ukraine have intensified reciprocal drone and missile attacks, heavily impacting industrial, energy, and transport infrastructure in both countries. Strikes have caused widespread power outages, refinery shutdowns, as well as rail and port disruptions.
With peace negotiations stalled and neither side showing readiness to de-escalate, the conflict is expected to persist, prolonging regional instability and operational disruptions for the foreseeable future.
Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine remain stalled
Official talks between Russia and Ukraine remain at a standstill at the time of writing. While Ukrainian negotiators have demanded a full Russian troop withdrawal and accountability for alleged war crimes, Russia seeks official recognition of annexed Ukrainian territories and Ukraine’s neutrality in conflicts between Russia and the European Union and the United States. These positions have not changed in recent months, leaving little room for compromise that would be needed to de-escalate the situation on the ground and eventually lead to ceasefire.
Western support for Ukraine has generally continued, with the U.S. and the E.U. continuing to supply weapons and maintaining sanctions on Russian businesses and individuals.
U.S. President Donald Trump has recently cancelled a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin amid stalled peace talks but has expressed a preference for ending the war as quickly as possible, suggesting to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a recent meeting that Ukraine should accept Russian territorial demands regarding the Donbas region.
European leaders, especially from Germany and France, voiced scepticism about President Trump’s proposals for a peace deal, cautioning that premature concessions might weaken Kyiv’s negotiating leverage. On October 23, the E.U. further solidified support for Ukraine when members agreed in principle to provide financing for Ukraine for the next two years. The exact details of the proposal have not been finalized, but the financing could come from frozen Russian assets in the E.U.
Meanwhile, the U.S. and the E.U. finalized their most recent sanctions packages on Russia related to the war, with the U.S. sanctioning major oil companies PJSC Rosneft Oil Company and PJSC Lukoil Oil Company, and the E.U. sanctioning Russian banks and financial institutions as well as banning the import of Russian liquified natural gas products.
Recent drone strikes damage industrial sites and key infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine
Drone and missile attacks throughout the summer have severely disrupted industrial production and logistics operations across parts of Russia and Ukraine. Frequent strikes on oil refineries, chemical plants, and energy facilities have forced temporary shutdowns, triggered fires, and strained regional supply chains. These attacks have caused significant production losses, reduced refinery output, and delayed both domestic and export shipments of fuels and chemicals.
According to estimates, Ukraine launched almost 30 strikes on Russian refineries and related infrastructure between the beginning of August and the middle of October. Strikes throughout the summer have targeted facilities including PJSC Lukoil Oil Company’s refinery in Volgograd, PJSC Rosneft’s refinery in Ryazan as well other facilities in Rostov, Samara, Saratov and Krasnodar.
Crude oil processing in Russia has reportedly dropped by around 500,00 barrels per day as a result. In early October roughly 40% of the country’s oil refining capacity was halted, with Ukrainian strikes estimated to have caused around 70% of the shutdowns.
Following these attacks, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that refining output in Russia may not return to normal levels before the middle of next year. Ukraine also targeted sections of the Druzhba pipeline, one of the world’s biggest crude oil pipeline networks, Novatek PJSC’s Ust-Luga export terminal, which accounts for roughly 60% of Russia’s naphtha exports, and one of Russia’s largest oil offloading terminals in Primorsk on the Baltic Sea.
To safeguard domestic supply, the Russian Government banned producers and exporters from exporting gasoline until at least December 31, 2025. It also banned non-producers from exporting diesel, marine fuels and gasoil from October 1 until the end of the year. In some regions of Russia, authorities had to introduce rationing measures and froze fuel prices amid gasoline shortages, caused in part by strikes on Russian refineries.
Meanwhile, Russian strikes have reportedly destroyed around 60% of Ukraine’s natural gas production capacity as of early October, likely forcing the country to step up energy imports in the run up to winter to meet energy demand.
Cargo and passenger trains face continued disruptions
The movement of passenger and cargo trains also continues to face operational disruptions due to Russian attacks on the country’s logistics networks. According to Ukrainian Railways, the state-owned rail operator in Ukraine, the number of attacks on Ukrainian rail infrastructure doubled from August to September, with Russian strikes not only targeting trains but infrastructure supporting the rail network as well.
A Ukrainian government official suggested in October that around half of the attacks on the country’s rail network since the beginning of the war have taken place in the last two months alone. The attacks have caused significant disruptions, including train delays, temporary traffic suspensions and the rerouting of trains. With much of the country’s iron ore and grain exports being moved by train to seaports in the south or through Poland in the west, the attacks also put the supply of these goods in other countries at risk of disruptions.
Russian strikes have also continued to target the seaport in Odesa, the country’s largest port complex, which handles cargo such as metals and agricultural products, damaging key infrastructure including berthing facilities, warehouses and port equipment.
In Russia, drone attacks conducted by Ukrainian forces have repeatedly disrupted flight operations, leading to intermittent flight delays and cancellations at some of the country’s busiest airports for months. Affected airports include the Domodedovo International Airport (IATA: DME), Sheremetyevo International Airport (IATA: SVO), and Vnukovo International Airport (IATA: VKO) in Moscow and Pulkovo Airport (IATA: LED) in St Petersburg.
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