A strain of avian influenza, A (H5N1), has been detected in birds in the U.S. since 2022. In March 2024, a new outbreak of this bird flu was detected and has now spread to livestock. On March 25, four dairy farms in Texas and Kansas confirmed the presence of the virus in herds and unpasteurized milk samples from cattle. Four days later, additional virus detections were confirmed in dairy cattle in Michigan that had recently received cows from Texas.
Dairy farms in Idaho, New Mexico, and Ohio have since confirmed the presence of bird flu as well, though there were no reported links to other states. In total, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has confirmed detections on 16 dairy farms across six states.
As with previous strains of avian influenza, human interaction with contaminated animals can lead to human infection, as evidenced by an already infected dairy worker in Texas. The outbreak risks the availability of poultry and dairy products in the U.S. Further, the risk of human infection may lead to a labor shortage in the food processing supply chain, from farms to packaging centers. Though the primary risk is to food and beverages, shortages and affected products could disrupt other industries including cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals production, all of which rely on egg whites as inputs in industrial processes. A prolonged disruption in the national supply of egg whites could lead to production delays if alternative functional proteins are not readily available.
Virus outbreak protocols threaten U.S. poultry and dairy supply
Protocols for virus outbreaks at poultry farms have historically been strict, resulting in the large-scale culling of infected birds, which raises concerns of inadequate poultry supply.
Since the initial outbreak in 2022, 82 million U.S. chickens, turkeys, and other birds have been culled due to this strain of avian flu. Protocols for cattle are less defined, as the risk of avian flu reaching dairy products in the U.S. is low, given strict regulatory measures on pasteurization.
So far, beef cattle are unaffected. But given the scale of the uncertainty around cattle-to-cattle transmission, enhanced biosecurity protocols are being implemented, which could lead to disruptions to national supply. Cattle trade between states has been restricted to prevent the further spread of the virus on farms. Seventeen states have implemented restrictions on cattle imports from states where the avian flu has been confirmed in dairy cows. Nebraska now requires a special permit for all cattle entering the state, not only those from affected states, which includes a veterinarian consultation.
Even with the safety of pasteurization, milk from infected cattle is currently prohibited from being sent to processing centers for human consumption, minimizing the available supply for consumer-grade dairy products. Worse, infected cattle are exhibiting decreased and altered lactation patterns, and many that have fully recovered from the virus have not returned to pre-infection lactation levels or quality, raising concerns of future culling.
Reports from the Texas Animal Health Commission confirm a 40% reduction in milk production in virus-infected herds, lasting up to 10 days, and a lasting altered milk quality in some cows making the milk unsuitable for the consumer market. This is particularly problematic for the Texas dairy industry, as it comes on the heels of a wildfire in late February that killed an estimated 7,000 livestock.
Texas is the fourth-largest producer of milk in the U.S., at 1.3 billion gallons of milk each year and 85% of production is concentrated in the affected Panhandle area. Many livestock injured during the recent fires are being culled without being tested for the avian flu virus, leading many to believe the number of infected cows in Texas is much higher than current records as the virus outbreak is also primarily located in the state’s Panhandle.
Early virus detection critical to avoiding poultry and dairy labor shortages
Farm labor in the U.S. continues to feel the effects of worker shortages prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic and tightened by subsequent immigration policies limiting seasonal agriculture workers. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, there are 2.4 million farm jobs currently vacant.
Since 2017, there has been a total farmland decline of 7% in the country due to inadequate staffing, with disproportionate impacts to Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. In Kansas, agricultural staff shortages cost the state economy an estimated $11.7 billion (€10.9 billion).
In early April, a Texas dairy farm worker contracted the same strain of avian flu found in cattle and birds. This marked the first human case this year, and only the second-ever recorded in the U.S., the last involving a Colorado poultry farm worker in 2022. Though the current strain is not believed to be easily transmissible between animals and humans, the recent detection has caused concern of heightened risk to farmworkers and, subsequently, a risk of worsening the existing labor shortages at U.S. farms.
Dairy and poultry farmworkers are in close contact with the animals and have a higher level of exposure than the general population. While this avian flu outbreak may not be an early indicator of a new COVID-19-style pandemic, it could pose great risk to the availability of farm labor.
Workers in food and beverage transport, processing, and packaging are also at heightened risk of contracting avian flu. Lack of early virus detection on farms increases the risk of contaminated animals and their byproducts being transferred to industrial processing centers. Infected animals can also contaminate shipping containers and trucks, infecting healthy animals in transit and any transporters and handlers.
In industrial settings, inhalation of airborne virus particles and hand-to-mouth contact with contaminated surfaces pose the biggest risk for human transmission. Much like during the COVID-19 pandemic, all workers in the food and beverage supply chain, from farmworkers to packagers, are at risk of transmission if early detection protocols are not prioritized. This starts with farmworkers and owners, many of which are disincentivized to report outbreaks for fear of profit loss. While in 2022, poultry farms were compensated a combined $500 million (€467 million) for culling infected birds, there is no such program yet to encourage early detection and reporting in dairy herds. Compensation from the USDA poultry program is also often under market value, with indemnity payments historically covering up to 80% of market price for each culled bird.
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