Avian influenza is a viral disease that primarily affects birds, caused by the influenza A virus. Some strains, such as H5N1, can also infect humans and other animals. Significant outbreaks have occurred globally, with the H5N1 strain first emerging in 1997 and spreading widely in the 2000s. The most recent H5N1 outbreak was found in the United States in early 2022. It quickly spread through migratory birds, infected commercial poultry, and spread to some mammals such as dairy cows.
The most recent outbreak has led to a shortage of eggs in the U.S. due to the mass culling of infected birds and disrupted poultry exports. While primarily affecting the food-related sectors, it may also have long-term effects on industries such as cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals that rely on egg-based products. With the detection of the H5N9 avian influenza strain on a California duck farm in late January, there are also growing concerns about the potential of the bird flu virus to combine with other influenza viruses, which could result in new mutated strains of the virus that may pose a bigger danger to humans as well.
Avian flu outbreak threatens U.S. egg and poultry supply
Federal and state governments implemented additional regulations to reduce the spread of the virus, but these measures, such as large-scale poultry culling and trade restrictions, can disrupt production. Since the 2022 emergence of the H5N1 virus in U.S. poultry, more than 157 million birds have been lost due to culling protocols across all 50 U.S. states and Puerto Rico. As the number of culled birds continues to grow, flocks become smaller along with the number of eggs they can produce.
Large commercial operations are particularly at risk as the detection of the virus in a single facility can lead to the loss of one to two million birds. In April 2024, Cal-Maine Foods, the largest U.S. egg producer, reported a bird flu outbreak in Farwell, Texas, leading to the culling of 1.6 million hens and 337,000 pullets, which affected 3.6% of its production. In January 2025, Rose Acre Farms confirmed an avian flu outbreak at its Seymour, Indiana facility. The culling of millions of egg-laying hens diminished egg supply in the U.S., leading to steep price increases.
In addition to domestic supply concerns, the ongoing outbreak has prompted importers of U.S. poultry to enact restrictions to ensure the safety of their own domestic supply. Since 2022, the Philippines, Hong Kong, and Singapore, among others, have imposed bans and restrictions on the import of eggs and poultry products due to concerns over the outbreak of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI). Most recently, the Department of Agriculture in the Philippines implemented a temporary import ban on poultry products from Maryland, Missouri and South Dakota due to concerns over avian flu.
The recent detection of avian flu in commercial poultry in Elbert County, Georgia, in January poses significant trade concerns, as Georgia is one of the largest chicken producers in the county. In response to the most recent outbreak, the Georgia Department of Agriculture banned poultry exhibitions and sales across the state, disrupting commercial operations statewide. The USA Poultry & Egg Export Council estimates initial export losses could reach $34 million (€32.4 million) with countries like Mexico, Taiwan, and South Korea expected to impose bans on poultry imports from Georgia.
Impact of avian flu outbreak on dairy products
So far, the H5N1 virus has affected dairy cattle in 16 states, with only about 2% of cows dying or being euthanized. Unlike poultry, depopulation is rarely the first response to avian flu in dairy cattle due to their low mortality rate and effective pasteurization. However, H5N1 outbreaks can still disrupt milk production, leading to economic losses. Infected cows may lose 10-20% of their milk production over 7-10 days, costing producers $100 (€95) to $200 (€190) per cow. These financial losses can quickly put a strain on producers already operating on relatively thin margins. Raw Farm of Fresno had to recall raw milk and cream produced after November 9, 2024, due to potential bird flu contamination. The six-week shutdown of Raw Farm’s dairy facilities in Fresno County and Kings County that followed the discovery of the avian flu outbreak cost the company over $2.7 million (€2.6 million) in sales.
Virus outbreaks in California, the country’s largest milk-producing state, are particularly concerning. Since avian flu was first detected on U.S. dairy farms in March 2024, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has confirmed 972 cases across 17 states, with 747 in California. Consequently, milk production in California dropped by 6.8% in December 2024 compared to the previous year.
Domestic and international trade restrictions, put in place to curb the spread of the H5N1 virus among dairy cows, put the market at risk of further instability. Since the initial outbreak, 22 U.S. states restricted cattle imports from other states with confirmed cases. Furthermore, Colombia introduced a pre-emptive ban on U.S. beef imports from April to September in 2024, despite no beef cattle having tested positive for avian flu. If the virus continues to spread, more restrictions on dairy-related business activities could follow.
Many dairy farmers and processors have been reluctant to test animals or milk for the virus due to fears of economic consequences. To address this, the USDA, in December 2024, announced that it will begin bulk testing raw milk across the country for avian flu. However, Texas, Wisconsin, and Idaho, which are among the top five milk-producing states in the U.S., are not participating in the voluntary federal testing program, which could hinder efforts to stop the spread of the virus to other U.S. states or countries importing U.S. dairy products.
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