Lauren McKinley
Hello everyone and thank you for joining us today. This webinar is the Winter Weather Outlook sponsored and hosted by Everstream Analytics. All attendee lines are on mute. If you have any questions throughout the webinar session, please add them in the q and a box and we will make sure to address as many as possible. We will also send a recording of the session out following its conclusion today. Our speakers are John Davis, chief Meteorologist and Mark Russo, chief Science Officer at Everstream Analytics who will take us through the winter weather outlook and then discuss new climate projection risk scores soon to be available from Everstream Analytics. And with that I will turn it over to John.
Jon Davis
Great, thank you so much all Lauren, and good day everybody. So the first part of our presentation today is going to be the winter weather outlook. Then the second part again will be the climate projections and how we think about climate from a supply chain perspective. When we talk about the upcoming winter, this is the time of year when we put out our forecast for all different sectors out there, agriculture, energy, supply chains, and look ahead as to what the ramifications and disruptions will be from overall areas of the North America, Europe, and East Asia. First of all, we’re going to take a very brief look back at last winter. This is looking back a year ago, the core of winter, December, January, February, and looking at the temperature anomalies. Last winter, of course North America was extremely warm. Basically the warmest winter that North America has had in the past 75 years.
Jon Davis
The core of Europe, with the exception of the Scandinavian countries, also very, very warm last winter, very low heating demand and a little bit more variability in East Asia, China, the Koreas and Japan, but still a warm bias there. Those three areas, the us, Europe and East Asia, we call that the trifecta of the winter, the place where most people live, most energy demand is consumed and the main drivers of the supply chain on a global basis overall. We’re going to focus now a little bit on the US and we’re going to talk about some of the recent trends that we’ve seen. How do we relate temperatures to overall heating demand? We call this the consumer index overall. And when we look at overall trends and we look at the last 75 years, this is looking at the US on a population weighted basis and how overall heating demand, thus how cold or warm it is going back to the winter of 19 50, 51 to last winter on the top of the chart, our very cold winters, such as what happened in the late seventies, those extremely cold three that occurred during those timeframes.
Jon Davis
And since then overall temperatures have gotten warmer and warmer, less and less heating demand overall. And you can see that by looking at the trend. So the trend in overall temperatures or the winter consumer index has been dropping for many, many decades. The winters have been getting warmer, not only in the US but in Europe and also in East Asia. We can also look at this from a standpoint of some of the normals. The 30 year normal, the yellow line is higher than the 10 year normal, the orange line or the five year normal, the red line. So even in recent times, winters are beginning warmer and warmer. It doesn’t mean that you can’t have a cold winter, but long bouts of cold weather are becoming less and less likely. In other words, the trend of winter temperatures in all three areas of the trifecta, as we call it, the trend is beginning warmer.
Jon Davis
That’s been the case over the last couple of years and it’s been the case over the last five or six decades here overall. So as we start out the analysis of going into the winter season, the first variable we start is with trend and the trend has been in a warmer direction for quite some time now we’ll take a look at the recap of last winter from a standpoint of snowfall. This is looking at the entire season last year from last October to march the entire winter of 23, 24. And these are the snowfall anomalies. Areas in brown and yellow are a snowfall deficit below normal snowfall. Areas in blue are above normal snowfall for much of the central and eastern us. We saw well below normal snowfall last winter. In other words, we think of this as the disruptor index in a supply chain mode.
Jon Davis
So the disruptions via snowstorms and ice storms and snow was very low last winter in the central and eastern us. That was true on the east coast in the Midwest in the Great Lakes. There were a few areas out in the Rockies of the US and places like Colorado and Utah that had above normal snowfall mainly in the higher elevations. But those areas were few and far between. So the bottom line is last winter in the states was a record warm winter and a winter that had little if any major disruptions from a snow fall standpoint overall. Now we’re going to take a look at the variables that are important and driving a situation going into the new winter. How are things different or how are they the same this year compared to a year ago? We already talked a little bit about trend. The trend is in the warmer direction in all areas here coming up.
Jon Davis
One of the variables that is specific for this particular winter is what’s happening with water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. So if we look at global water temperatures, and this is a map that shows the overall global temperature anomalies in the oceans, of course you can see a lot of red on this overall map above normal water temperatures in most locations out there. One of the areas where we don’t have unusually warm temperatures in the global oceans is in the Equatorial Pacific. That is the area where we’re seeing a La Nina event right now and that La Nina event cooler than normal water temperatures overall, that is an important variable and totally the opposite of a year ago when we had warm waters or no Nino event across those areas. So this will drive circulation patterns from the Pacific into North America as well as many other areas of the globe and is a key variable in looking ahead as to what kind of conditions we will tend to see overall.
Jon Davis
If we look at the general trends and the temperature and precipitation trends during most La Nina years, these are what we call composites, composites of temperatures on the left and precipitation on the right of La Nina Winters going back over the last 40 or 50 years. In general, the US much of Eastern Canada tend to have a warm bias, so a warmer than normal bias across the region. The one area that has a bit cooler bias is Western Canada and portions of Alaska will get the implications of that here in a bit. But for the lower 48, especially the population zones of the lower 48, it is a warm bias here for Alan Nina Winter like what we’re going into over the next three to four months from a precipitation standpoint. Overall in general, the southern US California, most areas of the west coast tend to have a drier bias during these types of overall winter conditions.
Jon Davis
During La Nina, the active zone, the wet zone is northern US and portions of southern Canada. That’s where the storm track will tend to be blind. That’s where you’ll tend to have the majority of overall winter storms across the northern tier of the states and in southern Canada, but not in highly populated zones like the east coast, like the Southern US and into areas of California. So again, this is the first variable overall and these are the trends that you tend to get when dealing with alini type winter here over overall with temperatures and precipitation. I’ll hand it over to Mark and we’ll talk about our next variable.
Mark Russo
Thank you John, and good day everybody. Let’s talk about our next variable, which is the polar vortex, which is a very important variable especially as we go through the winter season here and specifically with the polar vortex. Now as winter is approaching, normally the polar vortex spins up during the fall. It then reaches peak intensity during the winter and then ultimately begins to spin down during the spring timeframe. And the way that we think about this from a polar vortex standpoint, there’s two states of the polar vortex and that determines the colder risks or the warmer risks for the key mid latitude supply chain zones and densely populated supply chain zones of North America, Europe and East Asia. So on the left map that you’re viewing, this is a stable polar vortex. This is when the polar vortex is near the north pole situated in around the North Pole.
Mark Russo
It’s circular in shape, it’s stronger than normal or has stronger than normal winds. And what that does is bottle up arctic air across the higher latitudes and then the mid latitudes are warm, north America, Europe and East Asia. The right map is a complete opposite. This is an unstable polar vortex, a more disrupted polar vortex where the center of the vortex is displaced off the north pole. The vortex is stretched out, it’s elliptical in shape. Sometimes it even splits into two when we have what’s called a major stratospheric warming, and that is the trigger for sending arctic air into the key supply chain networks across the northern hemisphere. And that is when we have the big holder outbreaks, which results in timeframes of enhanced protection from freeze for temperature sensitive products and facilities also impacts the energy such as heating demand or even issues with power grids and then more wintry weather in terms of snow and ice.
Mark Russo
The biggest disruptors here of logistics and transportation. So the question now is what is the polar of vortex doing now and how does that look to be as we go into winter? So at Everstream Analytics we have developed a polar vortex index. This helps us track what the stability or the unstability unstability or instability is of the polar vortex, how it’s been so far this winter and what we expect it to be coming up over the next month or two. On this chart, we’re looking at this index which for reference at the top of the chart, the high levels of the index show an unstable polar vortex when there’s colder risks for North America, Europe and East Asia at times. And then the bottom of the chart, the lower numbers of the index is when the polar vortex is more stable and that typically is just warmer patterns and warmer risks in general for supply chain networks in the northern hemisphere.
Mark Russo
As the polar vortex has been spinning up in October, it’s been a little bit on the unstable side that has featured some cold air flowing into the mid-latitudes around the northern hemisphere. But what we’re seeing now as we move into November, the polar vortex is beginning to strengthen. We’re beginning now to actually get a trend towards more of a stable polar vortex. And if we look at the general trends here in some of the longer term computer model guidance, looking out into December, the trend of our index is down and to the right indicative of a more stable polar vortex as we move through November and potentially into December. So to us this is a signal that as we go through the next several weeks, this is for more warmer risks in general, a lack of any kind of big or long duration colder outbreaks or any kind long-term patterns of wintry weather across the areas of North America, Europe and East Asia.
Mark Russo
So going into this early portion of winter, we are expecting a more stable polar vortex and then the question becomes then does the vortex eventually become unstable? It doesn’t look that way early winter, but that is something to watch here as we go through the winter months. So this is our key polar vortex variable. Our last variable of no here is snow cover and specifically the buildup of snow cover across the northern hemisphere as we go through the autumn period is a critical component to how cold air is pooling or is being maintained as it’s flowing southward into the mid-latitudes. This is a current snapshot of snow cover across the northern hemisphere and also noted on this graphic are snow cover anomalies. The area shaded in red is where snow is absent, where typically it normally is at this time of year. The blue shaded areas where snow cover is more abundant here compared to normal and across the northern hemisphere, at least the region with the strongest correlation or the biggest signal for winter patterns.
Mark Russo
In general, it’s across Eurasia, it’s across Siberia. That is where the biggest source area of arctic air is for the middle attitudes. And also like here in the US when we have the biggest cold air outbreaks, those originate from Siberia. And so in general for Siberia and Eurasia at this time of year, the bigger the spatial extent of snow, the colder the signal for the winter and vice versa, the lower the spatial extent than the warmer. The signal here for the middle latitudes and what we’re seeing right now from a snow cover signal standpoint, if we look at how snow cover in Eurasia has been trending so far this fall on this chart, we’re looking at Eurasia snow cover extent in square kilometers and by day how that is tracking this year compared to the past 10 years. Back in early October, actually snow cover in Eurasia ramped up significantly by the 15th, actually the second highest of the past 10 years.
Mark Russo
However, that changed dramatically during the second half of October. Snow cover essentially flatlined, there was no increase. It went to below normal levels and in fact by the end of the month was the lowest snow cover extent on record here across Eurasia. Now here in November, things have ticked up a bit, but as of right now, Eurasian snow cover is below normal and that is a warm signal overall as we go into this winter. So with that now putting everything together based on our research and our key variables for this winter trend, the Laina event, our polar vortex and snow cover signals, putting everything together, the key takeaway here in the US the forecast theme is warmer than normal. We are expecting some temperature variability and in fact some extreme temperature variability, which tends to occur with La Ninos. That again does introduce some colder risks at times or variability.
Mark Russo
But overall we are expecting many more warm weeks and overall that is the case across the US and also likely true across Europe and East Asia as well. Now last winter again was the warmest winter on we record across the us. We are not expecting a repeat of that. While we are expecting it to be warmer than normal, the fact that we have La Nina in place and still some uncertainty with the polar vortex as we get into the middle to latter portion of this winter, we are not expecting it to be as warm as another record warm winter. Now the start of winter here as we’ve already seen, it’s started out on the warmer side. That’s especially true in the central and eastern us. So specifically for protection from freeze for temperature sensitive products and logistics and facilities here as we begin this new cold weather season, it’s starting warm overall big picture suppression of protection from freeze requirements and again, that’s true across many of the northern hemisphere population and transportation networks that we’re seeing as we get into December and beyond.
Mark Russo
Again, the main risks associated with any kind of more significant cold air that’s going to come down to the phase or the state of the polar vortex, it does the polar vortex eventually start to become more unstable. We do think it’ll be pretty difficult to remain as stable as it looks to be in late November and early December, but that is going to be the item to watch here as we go into the middle and latter portions of this winter. As for our thoughts on the precipitation outlook for the US and Southern Canada, we do feel it’s going to be kind of your more typical La Nina type of pattern, meaning a wetter than normal bias across areas of the northern US and southern Canada. That means above normal precipitation up north also more risk or higher frequency of winter storms or having that winter storm track aligned across the northern US and southern Canada.
Mark Russo
So that is one takeaway here from a precipitation standpoint. And then across the southern US it’s the opposite, tend to have a drier bias with La Nina winters. So for transportation and shipping lanes, whether it’s interstates or whether it’s rail in the southern US that’s we’re expecting fewer disruptions here as we go through the next several months. Finally, in terms of extreme weather events, the biggest disruptions to business operations and transportation networks, just from a macro standpoint, we’ve seen this trend in increase in frequency and magnitude of events and we expect that to continue here and again, not only in North America but also across the other areas of the northern hemisphere. So something to keep in the back of everybody’s mind is we prepare going into the heart of winter still something that could present some more impactful risks to supply chain networks as that’s been a distinct trend and we see that continuing still for this upcoming winter and likely beyond. So next, let me hand things back over to John who will discuss our climate projections.
Jon Davis
Right, thanks Mark. So the topic of climate of course is a very hot topic, pun very intended. It’s hard to go through a day or a week when you’re not reading or talking about climate issues out there, whether that’s in extreme weather events, whether that’s in policy, whether that’s in societal impacts here and so much of the time then we get questions about overall climate as to how do we see it through the lens of supply chains. So we’re going to talk a little bit about that overall from a macro standpoint then our new climate projection project here overall. So when we think about climate change and the impact on supply chains, that kind of obvious issue is the extreme weather events which have been increasing in virtually every category in every continent of the world just in the last four or six weeks. The amount of extreme weather events that have occurred out there that have affected supply chains affected a lot of people and affected overall movement of commerce out there has been extreme in many areas of the world.
Jon Davis
And so when we think about climate here overall that we think about the impacts and the bottom line is that the climate is changing faster than humans. Plants and supply chains can adapt. We’re going to talk about how we think of climate change through the lens of a supply chain here. Overall, we get this question all the time and for the last two or three years is when we think about climate change, there’s lots of different lens that you can look through from a supply chain lens. How do we think about the issue here going forward? So let’s take a look at the next slide and we’ll take a look at temperature changes. So this is looking at changes in temperatures through the middle portion of the century from the best climate models on the planet and from a global standpoint you can see that by mid-century in and around 2050, these are the projected increases from the climate models.
Jon Davis
As for temperatures you don’t see a lot of variability on here. All areas tend to increase in temperatures by some level, by some degrees. Overall the arctic warms much faster than other areas overall, but you’re seeing warming in virtually all locations, again to various levels. Overall from a temperature perspective, this is what you expect going toward the middle portion of the century. And of course things that come out of this, you think about health of workers, you think about infrastructure issues here overall you think about how this affects energy, demand and grids, how this affects agricultural areas for our clients that are dependent upon crops to make products and move those products around the world overall. But this is pretty much uniform as to the increases that you tend to see. The interesting item in the item that’s really fascinating to us is the precipitation trends.
Jon Davis
So how does precipitation patterns change as we go through from now through the middle portion of this century. And there are very specific areas that have a higher risk of drier conditions in very specific areas that have a higher risk of wetter conditions. So now you get into the details of the supply chain and as we look at overall changes by mid-century from a precipitation standpoint overall, these are some of the things that we think are noteworthy. Others may look at this and come up with other specific things here with fact of exposure to your company or products that you produce. So the Mediterranean area and the increased in dryness or drought frequency as we go toward the middle portion of the century. Overall companies that are getting agricultural products like olive oil for example, in areas of the Mediterranean, there’s a much stronger bias of dryness or more frequent drought across that area.
Jon Davis
Another drier tendency is Central America. So if you look at Central America, you have agricultural impacts there from a standpoint of more drought frequency, but think of the Panama Canal and a higher risk of drought issues in Panama and thus a higher risk of disruptions on the Panama Canal of being able to have vessels go back and forth across the Panama Canal here overall. So it’s not only general trends but specific logistical areas that are really interesting in this overall study. On the other end of the spectrum, east Asia, if we look at East Asia, there’s significant wetter biases across those areas. More frequent flooding events, more frequent issues with things like harvesting of crops with overall issues with infrastructure, more floods in China, in India, Southeast Asia, I Indonesia. It’s a broad area where all the models project that things will be getting wetter across that zone.
Jon Davis
Central Africa is another area where you tend to see wetter conditions here. Overall thinking about cocoa and thinking about populations across the region and how they deal with overall flooding issues across the region. The last area is the lower 48. When you look at the lower 48, the area that has the most significant change between now and the middle portion of the century is the southeast portion of the us. It is a wetter tendency, more frequent flooding, wetter conditions, not just probably related, but in much of the year across those areas. And when we think of what’s happened in the southeast over the last couple of months, some of the flooding events and some of the issues that we’ve seen on people and products across that area, that is something that already is beginning to unfold in the overall climate system across that area. And we expect those general trends to continue across the area. Again, these are just areas that we consider important within the supply chain based on individual companies or people you could look at other areas and certainly come to other conclusions here overall. But that’s kind of the macro version of how we think about climate and impacts on the supply chain from a very broad global level. I’m going to turn it back over to Mark and we’ll talk about our product and then how we can relate this information to geolocations on the globe.
Mark Russo
Thank you, John. Well, here at Everstream we are super excited with the release here this month of our climate projection risk scores. So taking all of the longer term projections of weather data as John highlight from a temperature and a precipitation standpoint, then making that actionable in terms of risk scores and overall underlying data here and risks in different categories of different perils here from a weather and climate standpoint. So with this new product, our customers are able to predict and quantify and help plan here specifics of climate indicators specifically to their supply chain networks. And for the primary categories that are going to be included in this initial release, there are eight of them as we’ve highlighted here, ranging anywhere from heat and drought to fire weather and tropical cyclone winds. And again, with this information able to look at these projections going out not only in the short term out to 2030 or the next several decades, but then ultimately out to the end of the century as well.
Mark Russo
With this information, again, our customers will be able to plan some of the longer term risks here in terms of planning, whether that’s for supplier selection, supplier diversity in their networks, and then for their own facility development for any kind of long-term resilience or just planning in terms of shifting facilities to another location based on potential risks. And as mentioned before, again, there are numerous risk scores here and perils that we’re going to be including. And so with these climate risk indicators, again, the customer is going to be able to look at general pathways looking out into the middle and end of the century and those pathways are determined by general global emissions and whether emissions here continue to rise as they have been or if they are curtailed a bit. And that comes down to these low severity, medium severity and high severity pathways.
Mark Russo
Again, with each of those scenarios, looking out to 20 40, 20 50 and ultimately to 2100 and within our platform then, and pretty similar to if you’re familiar with already some of the components here in our strategic, our risk scoring we’re now including with this new release, the various drought and fire weather and again all the climate risk perils here from a risk score standpoint. So customer will be able to go in and ultimately look how those risk scores by each climate type vary at a particular location. This is just an example here of one facility and the general weighted risk model here from a climate projection standpoint, looking out into the future to help with longer term strategic planning. And then when you drill down into an individual facility looking at a time series of this risk going out to 2100, then a user will be able then to see in those different pathways how those climate risks such as sea level rise or wildfire or heat or drought, how that risk then will change on the various pathways looking out several decades again out to the end of the century. So again, we’re super excited with this release here and that is again being released here this month. So with that, turn things back over to Lauren and we’ll be happy to answer any questions.
Lauren McKinley
Great, thank you both for the session today. We have a number of questions that came in and about a little under 10 minutes to get through as many as we can. So if we don’t have time to get to your question, we will make sure that we follow up after continue to add them here in the chat. The first question, thank you for the forecast and this information. Can you tell me a little bit more about Europe? Will Europe have another warm winter?
Jon Davis
Yeah, I can take that one. And the short answer is yes. So many of the same variables that are driving the pattern across the states are also driving the pattern across Europe. The trend in Europe, just like the states have been in the warming direction for many decades, especially the last five or seven years, it’s been nearly a decade since Europe has had a cold winter. So the trend is distinctly in the warmer direction. The other item that’s important is that water temperatures around Europe, whether that’s in the Atlantic or whether that’s in the Mediterranean, are at extremely high levels here overall. And those warm water temperatures have an impact on the pattern. They have an impact on overall temperatures and as you get flows off the oceans, Mediterranean Atlantic, then those warmer waters here in the air of vapor that goes across Europe. That’s a warmer bias here overall. LA Nina has a little bit less of an impact, but some of the circulations that begin to develop because of La Nina, they’re also in a warmer bias for Europe. So many of the same variables that drive the US also drive Europe. And yes, it does look like that Europe is in line for another warm winter here overall, which has been the trend distinctly over the past decade.
Lauren McKinley
Great, thank you. The next question is around hurricane season. So we’ve experienced a number of very severe hurricanes this year. Will the length of the hurricane season get longer moving forward?
Mark Russo
I could take that one here. Well, first off, for this year we are seeing an extended hurricane season because of the record warm water temperatures, especially in the Atlantic Basin, so Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. Right now with Hurricane Raphael, again, it’s pretty unusual to have a storm here moving to the Gulf of Mexico, a hurricane. It’s a pretty rare situation, but we have started to see that more in recent years and we are expecting that to continue here with time as sea surface temperatures continue to warm. And that just inevitably extends the season longer throughout November, even into December. And again, that is due to just the again, record warm water temperatures that we’re seeing. And until that trend changes in water temperatures, then that increase in the season will continue.
Lauren McKinley
Thanks Mark. The next question is around diving deeper into supply chain impacts. Could you speak to in the supply chain, what are the most vulnerable areas or industries that should be especially aware of what’s coming this winter?
Jon Davis
Yeah, great question. So couple of different answers to that. Any areas that are adjacent or on the coasts on the oceans are more vulnerable. Part of that is sea level rise. Part of that is the higher impacts of the warm waters on a global basis across these areas. What happened in Valencia, Spain a little over a week ago is an example of that. So if the Mediterranean wouldn’t have been at these record warm levels, that would not have occurred. So all coastal locations have a higher risk of having impact more frequent impacts than what is the norm over the last couple of decades. Overall, the other area that tends to be vulnerable in these situation in general, the tropics. So areas in the tropics, whether that’s rainfall across some areas as we talked about drought in some areas, the tropics, it tends to be amplified some of the impacts across those areas. And certainly the tropics, the impacts tend to be a bit greater across the region. So the two answers to that question would be coastal locations. You think about ports, airports, cities, things like that. And the tropics in general tend to have larger ramifications than other areas from both the supply chain standpoint, but also how it affects societies, how it affects all other things here within the overall climate spectrum overall.
Lauren McKinley
Thank you. Okay. It looks like we have time for maybe one or two more questions. The question is around the climate scores and just kind of how your team works with clients. Could you explain a little bit about how your team works with clients to talk about and consult around climate and weather and what that looks like related to the new scores?
Mark Russo
Yeah, I can take that one with what John presented before from the kind of macro, the temperature changes with time and then precipitation changes these regional changes here. With that is the very kind of a brief example of our advisory services where we walk through with our customers some of the main highlights or biggest things that we see in terms of changes in specific areas. But then ultimately, and then this goes with getting into the platform here when we have our advisory services consultation with our customers, then when they’re in the system, we are able to see their network, where their facilities are, where their transportation lanes are, where their areas of most important are either from an industry standpoint or just from a location standpoint, whether it’s suppliers or other parts of their supply chain networks. So then from a climate risk standpoint, we can go deeper into the details at a facility level and that’s where the risk scores will help.
Mark Russo
But again, the risk scores that will be in the platform, but then what we will be doing with our customers then are these advisory sessions. We’ll again, pull up their account, go through the different perils at different timeframes to help them get a much better understanding of these risks here for strategic planning purposes. And again, we’re able to customize it based on the unique needs and networks of each of our customers and be able to just dive more into the details versus just the general regional or macro thing. So that’s really the biggest benefit of advisory services and walking through and being available for questions to dive deeper into those supply chain risk longer term.
Lauren McKinley
Great, thank you. Okay, so we have one last, we have a few more questions. I think we might have time to one more quickly here. So leveraging the weather insights, how do we apply these weather insights to support logistics in the platform? So we talked about the risk scores with climate projections related to facilities locations, but can you speak a little bit about how we leverage the weather data for logistics?
Jon Davis
Sure. From a weather standpoint in logistics, whether we’re talking Panama Canal, Mississippi River, Amazon, all River systems out there or water resources in general, then we have the ability to take that data and then use that from a logistic standpoint. Some of that is in the platform, some of that is outside of the platform and some of the advisory service calls that Mark talked about here prior. But the bottom line here is that logistically if a weather situation, drought, flood, water resource values, if that overall impacts any logistics on a global basis, then we’ll be monitoring that. And we put that information pretty much out there overall. And we have dashboards on our side that take a look at all the major pressure points, if you will, from a logistics standpoint and begin to monitor that, especially water situations here, river levels, the Panama Canal, water resources across various areas out there. So we’re kind of looking at that on a daily basis and look to see if we get into any kind of a situation where you begin to see impacts logistically. And we’ve seen lots of those of course over the past couple of years.
Lauren McKinley
Great, thank you so much. So we are at time, I do see a number of questions that are still in the chat. We will not forget about these and we will make sure that we reply to each of them and follow up with everybody who attended and asked questions. Again, thank you Mark and John for the great session today in the weather outlook. If you’re interested in learning more about our applied meteorology and consulting services, weather intelligence, and the platform, and now our new climate risk projection scores, please contact [email protected] or you can send a note to [email protected] and we will make sure to connect with you at this time. We will close the session. Thank you so much for joining and have a great day.